Important Takeaways:

• The Japanese government warns of an 80% chance of a magnitude 9 Nankai Trough earthquake in 30 years, potentially killing 300,000 people.
• Tsunami waves up to 34 meters [111.54 ft] could devastate coastal cities, displacing 12.3 million and destroying 2.35 million buildings.
• The economic toll could reach $1.44 trillion, nearly half of Japan’s GDP, with long-term global supply chain disruptions.
• Evacuation improvements could reduce deaths, but current preparedness remains insufficient to meet government safety targets.
• Past disasters like Fukushima highlight the severe risks of nuclear and environmental crises from such an event.
• The Nankai Trough, a 600-mile (900 km) deep ocean trench, is a region where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. This tectonic boundary has historically produced megaquakes every 100 to 200 years. The last major event occurred in 1946, making the region overdue for another significant tremor. The Japanese government’s latest estimates, updated for the first time since 2013, account for inflationary pressures and advanced topographical data, which have expanded the anticipated flood areas.
• The 2011 Tohoku earthquake, a magnitude 9 event, killed over 15,500 people and caused the meltdown of three nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. The tsunami waves reached heights of up to 40 meters in some areas, causing widespread destruction and environmental contamination. The Nankai Trough megaquake could be even more devastating, with the potential to surpass the 2011 disaster in both scale and impact.

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