Important Takeaways:
- As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.
- Iran relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.
- Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia.
- The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
- Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
- The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include: Iraqi militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant forces, Yemen’s Houthi rebels
- The Houthis follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with his national security team in the Situation Room later on Monday amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.
- The Islamic Republic could attack Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours following a major attack by Hezbollah that left two IDF soldiers injured, top western diplomats have warned.
- Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the G7 yesterday that an attack in response to Israel killing Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut, was imminent, as reported by Axios.
- It would be the second time during the growing crisis in the Middle East that Iran has directly attacked Israel, the first being in April when it sent a salvo of missiles and drones overnight.
- But unlike the April attack, the US admitted in a private call with G7 members that it doesn’t know what the expected retaliatory strike will look like.
- Nevertheless, Iran has clearly signaled that it intends to attack its foe, claiming it has the ‘legal right’ to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination, with foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani telling a news conference: ‘No one has the right to doubt Iran’s legal right to punish the Zionist regime.’
- The threats from Iran comes just hours after Hezbollah, backed by the Iranian regime, launched a silo of 30 missiles from Lebanon towards upper Galilee.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is already in a “multifront war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.
- Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.
- Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts — “We want the escalation to end,” Ayman Safadi said — while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region.
- In Israel, some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals.
- Hezbollah says it’s aimed at relieving pressure on fellow Iran-backed ally Hamas. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., are encouraging citizens to leave Lebanon after last week’s killing of a senior commander.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is weighing more US defenses in the Middle East as the US prepares for an Iranian retaliation against Israel that officials say could include an attack on American forces.
- In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday, Biden said the US would “support Israel’s defense against threats,” which would include “new defensive US military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.
- The statement did not detail what new deployments would occur ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
- The USS Wasp amphibious assault ship and several other Navy vessels are currently operating in the Mediterranean Sea. The group includes a Marine expeditionary unit capable of carrying out an evacuation of American citizens from Lebanon if the US ordered such an evacuation.
- The US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles and drones launched against Israel on April 13, officials said. But this attack could be larger and more complicated than before, including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions.
- “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech Thursday.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military on Thursday confirmed the death of Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military wing — the third high-profile Hamas or Iran-linked figure it says it has killed in recent weeks.
- As head of the Qassam Brigades, Deif was believed to have been one of the masterminds of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on southern Israel
- The announcement came as the funeral was held for Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, a day after he was killed in Iran.
- As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East deepen, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said what it called an “intelligence assessment” had confirmed that Deif had been killed when fighter jets struck an area in the city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on July 13.
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Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia warned Wednesday that the assassination in Iran of visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh threatened a full “global conflict” — as the terror group called it “a grave escalation” and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” for Israel.
- “We resolutely condemn the attack that led to Mr. Haniyeh’s death,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said soon after Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
- “We believe that such action is aimed against attempts to establish peace in the region, and could significantly destabilize the already tense situation,” he said.
- Russian Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Andrei Nastasin also said the killing “raise[d] the stakes” in tensions already rife over Israel’s war on the terror group after the Oct. 7 slaughter of more than 1,200.
- “The region is currently balancing on the brink of a global conflict,” Natasin said.
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Important Takeaways:
- The chaos in Washington, could sway Hamas to harden its stance in the hostage talks and give Iran that impression that now is the moment to increase military activity against Israel.
- Now, he is suddenly a lame duck president with only six months left in office, and there are calls for him to step down immediately in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
- This means that the issue of retrieving the hostages and forming a military coalition against Iran could almost immediately fall into her hands.
- The leadership chaos will be most acute in the next month, given that the question of Harris replacing Biden on the ticket can only be officially decided by the Democratic National Convention on August 19-22.
- This sudden potential shift in leadership comes as Biden and his administration are in the final phase of potentially closing a hostage deal.
- The problem is not just that Harris is untested on these issues, but more that Biden is now at his weakest point during a month when Israel most needs Washington to be in a strong leadership position.
- That will create difficulties with closing the hostage deal and make Israel seem more vulnerable to Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- It apparently never occurred to either the heads of the UN or the EU to consider that if you are a terrorist organization that commits war crimes, you do not get to choose how a war that you started is waged against you.
- If you do not want a “bloodbath,” do not take hostages, hide them among civilians, try to prevent a rescue, then if they are rescued, profess shock at the fallout that you yourself have teed up.
- In contravention of the Geneva conventions, Hamas has refused to allow the Red Cross to check on the welfare of the hostages. One can imagine why.
- To this day, there seems little-to-no interest in the fate or condition of the hostages still in Gaza. Instead, there is denial that the October 7 atrocities even took place, compared to an almost obsessive regard for the safety of, and humanitarian aid for Gazans. When the UN is unable to deliver the aid, Israel, not the UN, is blamed.
- The Hamas murders, rapes, burning alive of babies and abductions – all the reasons why Israel was forced to go to war with Hamas to begin with — have retreated into the background.
- What seems to matter instead to those who set the political and media agendas is to use the Hamas war once again to demonize the Jews as the world’s most inhuman people for wanting to live peacefully on their historical land without daily massacres from Iran and its proxies — Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and the Houthis — which apparently plan to encircle them in a “Ring of Fire” — “six fronts of aggression
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Important Takeaways:
- A new so-called “moderate” Iranian president has been chosen, “voted freely” by the people… or not.
- There are two things to know about any presidential election in Iran. Number one, you can have the charade, but any winner in the Iranian presidential elections is handpicked by the Supreme Leader of Iran. If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei doesn’t want you, you are not getting in that slot as Iran’s president. Remember, the supreme leader of Iran is exactly what his name suggests: he is the “supreme leader” who rules over the nation with an iron fist.
- The Iranian president is essentially a figurehead in charge of the day-to-day “political game,” and, in some respects, he is the regime’s face to the world. Iran’s new face is Masoud Pezeshkian.
- The second thing to know about Iran’s elections is that if the mainstream media is hailing the victor as a “moderate” or “reformist,” then you can bet your bottom dollar that he is anything but. Masoud Pezeshkian keeps to the same old radical standard of every one of his predecessors, including the Butcher of Tehran, Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May alongside Iran’s Foreign Minister.
- When the supreme leader wants to present a certain face to the world, that will be reflected in the Iranian president. This time around is telling because Iran is sprinting to the finish line in its nuclear program. If they have a fire-breathing radical at the helm, it may result in more scrutiny of the regime.
- The one place where these Iranian presidents will drop their guard is talking about Israel. There’s no semblance of moderation, charade, or facade when it comes to their rhetoric against the Jewish State.
- However, Iran’s radical anti-Israel stance doesn’t seem to bother the mainstream media. You have got to love the way this article in the UK Telegraph starts, “Iran’s new moderate president told Hezbollah’s leader that he will continue to support the terror group and other regional ‘resistance movements’ against Israel.”
- How did he possibly gain this “moderate” and “reformist” moniker?
- …the illusion of “moderate” makes them feel better. It’s much more pleasant to convince themselves that the threat of Iran has diminished with its new president.
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