U.S. job growth beats expectations in January, wages soft

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By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, which likely gives the Trump administration a head start as it seeks to boost the economy and employment.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month, the largest gain in four months, the Labor Department said on Friday. But the unemployment rate rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent and wages increased modestly, suggesting that there was still some slack in the labor market.

Revisions to November and December showed the economy created 39,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Still, the labor market continues to tighten, which could soon spur a faster pace of wage growth. Federal Reserve officials view the labor market as being at or near full employment.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 175,000 last month and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7 percent.

President Donald Trump vowed during last year’s election campaign to deliver 4 percent annual gross domestic product growth, largely on the back of a plan to cut taxes, reduce regulations, increase infrastructure spending and renegotiate trade deals in the United States’ favor.

Although details on the policy proposals remain sketchy, consumer and business confidence have surged in the wake of Trump’s election victory last November. But with the economy near full employment, some economists are skeptical of the 4 percent growth pledge. Annual GDP growth has not exceeded 2.6 percent since the 2007-08 recession.

DISAPPOINTING WAGE GROWTH

Average hourly earnings increased only three cents or 0.1 percent last month. December’s wage gain was revised down to 0.2 percent from the previously reported 0.4 percent increase.

January’s small rise in average hourly earnings is a surprise given that the minimum wage took effect in more than a dozen states last month. The small gain lowered the year-on-year increase in earnings to 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent in December.

Sluggish wage growth, if it persists, would suggest only a gradual pace of rate increases by the Fed. The U.S. central bank, which hiked rates in December, has forecast three rate increases this year.

On Wednesday, the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. It said it expected labor market conditions would strengthen “somewhat further.”

With its January employment report, the government published its annual “benchmark” revisions and updated the formulas it uses to smooth the data for regular seasonal fluctuations. It also incorporated new population estimates.

The government said the level of employment in March of last year was 60,000 lower than it had reported. As the labor market nears full employment, the pool of workers is shrinking, which is slowing job growth.

The shift in population controls mean figures on the labor force or number of employed or unemployed in January are not directly comparable with December.

The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, was at 62.9 percent in January, the highest level since September.

All sectors of the economy added jobs in January.

Manufacturing payrolls increased by 5,000 jobs, rising for a second straight month as the oil-related drag on the sector eases. Construction employment jumped 36,000, the largest increase since March, likely boosted by warm weather, after December’s paltry 2,000 gain.

Retail payrolls, surprisingly surged 45,900, the biggest rise since February. Retailers, including Macy’s <M.N>, Sears <SHLD.O>, American Apparel and Abercrombie & Fitch <ANF.N> announced job cuts in January amid store closures. Department store sales are being undercut by online retailers, led by Amazon.com <AMZN.O>.

Government employment fell for a fourth straight month in January. Further declines are likely after the Trump administration enforced a hiring freeze on civilian federal government workers on Jan. 22.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Job growth slows, but wages rebound strongly

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By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employment increased less than expected in December but a rebound in wages pointed to sustained labor market momentum that sets up the economy for stronger growth and further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 156,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. The gains, however, are more than sufficient to absorb new entrants into the labor market.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the work-age population. Employers hired 19,000 more workers than previously reported in October and November.

“Job creation and overall labor market conditions remain solid. With the potential for stronger fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending and tax cuts, job creation appears likely to remain on a solid footing in 2017,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer for Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

The economy created 2.16 million jobs in 2016. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents or 0.4 percent in December after slipping 0.1 percent in November. That pushed the year-on-year increase in earnings to 2.9 percent, the largest gain since June 2009, from 2.5 percent in November.

While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7 percent from a nine-year low of 4.6 percent in November that was because more people entered the labor force, a sign of confidence in the labor market.

The employment report added to data ranging from housing to manufacturing and auto sales in suggesting that President-elect Donald Trump is inheriting a strong economy from the Obama administration. The labor market momentum is likely to be sustained amid rising business and consumer confidence.

Trump, who takes over from President Barack Obama on Jan. 20, has pledged to increase spending on the country’s aging infrastructure, cut taxes and relax regulations. These measures are expected to boost growth this year.

But the proposed expansionary fiscal policy stance could increase the budget deficit. That, together with faster economic growth and a labor market that is expected to hit full employment this year could raise concerns about the Fed falling behind the curve on interest rate increases.

The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate last month by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The Fed forecast three rate hikes this year.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on the employment data, while U.S. government bonds were trading lower. U.S. stock index futures rose.

FACTORY JOBS RISE

Economists had forecast payrolls rising by 178,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of a percentage point to 4.7 percent.

A broad measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment fell one-tenth to a more than 8-1/2-year low of 9.2 percent.

Employment growth in 2016 averaged 180,000 jobs per month, down from an average gain of 229,000 per month in 2015. The slowdown in job growth is consistent with a labor market that is near full employment.

There has been an increase in employers saying they cannot fill vacant positions because they cannot find qualified workers. The skills shortage has been prominent in the construction industry.

Even as the labor market tightens, there still remains some slack. The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, rose one-tenth of percentage point to 62.7 percent in December.

The participation rate remains near multi-decade lows. Some of the decline reflects demographic changes.

December’s job gains were broad, with manufacturing payrolls rising 17,000 after declining for four straight months. Construction payrolls fell 3,000 in December after three consecutive months of increases.

Retail sector employment rose 6,300 after increasing 19,500 in November. Department store giants Macy’s <M.N> and Kohl’s Corp <KSS.N> this week reported a drop in holiday sales. Macy’s said it planned to cut 10,000 jobs beginning this year.

Department stores have suffered from stiff competition from online rivals including Amazon.com <AMZN.O>. Temporary help declined 15,500 last month, the biggest drop since January.

Education and health services employment rose 70,000, the biggest increase since February. Government employment increased 12,000 in December.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. Unemployment Rises Amid Job Growth

Almost 157,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy last month while the unemployment rate continued to climb.

The unemployment rate climbed to 7.9% in January, up .1% from the previous month’s total. The data from the Labor Department said that an average of 181,000 jobs were created each month in 2012. However, the data did not break down to say if those were low paying, minimum wage jobs or jobs with livable wages. Continue reading