Airlines set to lose $157 billion amid worsening slump: IATA

By Laurence Frost

PARIS (Reuters) – Airlines are on course to lose a total $157 billion this year and next, their main global body warned on Tuesday, further downgrading its industry outlook in response to a second wave of coronavirus infections and shutdowns afflicting major markets.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which in June had forecast $100 billion in losses for the two-year period, said it now projects a $118.5 billion deficit this year alone, and a further $38.7 billion for 2021.

The bleak outlook underscores challenges still facing the sector despite upbeat news on development of COVID-19 vaccines, whose global deployment will continue throughout next year.

“The positive impact it will have on the economy and air traffic will not happen massively before mid-2021,” IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac told Reuters.

Passenger numbers are expected to drop to 1.8 billion this year from 4.5 billion in 2019, IATA estimates, and will recover only partially to 2.8 billion next year. Passenger revenue for 2020 is expected to have plunged 69% to $191 billion.

“That’s by far the biggest shock the industry has experienced in the post-World War Two years,” IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said.

The forecasts assume significant re-opening of borders by the middle of next year, helped by some combination of COVID-19 testing and vaccine deployment.

IATA reiterated its call for governments to replace travel-stifling quarantine regimes with widespread testing programs.

“We are seeing states progressively coming to listen to us,” de Juniac said, citing testing initiatives underway in France, Germany, Italy, Britain, the United States and Singapore.

While some governments and airlines such as Australia’s Qantas say passengers are likely to require vaccination for long-haul travel, the approach is unlikely to work everywhere, de Juniac said.

“It would prevent people who are refusing (the vaccine) from travelling,” the IATA chief said. “Systematic testing is even more critical to reopen borders than the vaccine.”

Air cargo, a rare bright spot for the industry as the grounding of flights pushes freight prices higher, will likely see global revenue rise 15% to $117.7 billion this year despite an 11.6% decline in volume to 54.2 million tonnes, IATA said.

Some $173 billion in government aid has left recipients with debts that threaten to hobble future investment, it warned, and more bankruptcies are likely. Norwegian Air became the latest casualty on Nov. 18, when it filed for bankruptcy protection in Ireland.

The average airline now has enough liquidity to survive another 8.5 months, while some have just weeks, Pearce said. “I think we will get consolidation through some airline failures.”

(Reporting by Laurence Frost; Additional reporting by Johnny Cotton; Editing by Mark Potter and David Evans)

U.S. current account imbalance unlikely to diminish: researcher

FILE PHOTO - A police officer keeps watch in front of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, U.S. on October 12, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

(Reuters) – The United States will likely continue to run a large current account deficit against other countries because of its status as a global safe asset haven among other reasons, a U.S. economist told an annual symposium of some of the world’s most influential central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Saturday.

University of Wisconsin, Madison, professor Menzie Chinn’s research also suggests lawmakers in the United States should look to domestic fiscal policy if they want to reduce external imbalances.

A glut of savings in other countries historically has fueled capital flows into the United States, and while global imbalances have shrunk back to pre-crisis levels such flows will continue to weigh on the nation’s current account balance, especially as the quantity of safe assets has diminished in recent years.

The current account measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of a country.

Data shows that the savings glut effect on the current account has faded somewhat but the budget balance has retained its importance since the financial crisis, Chinn said in a paper delivered on the final day of the flagship three-day economic conference.

“Policymakers are clearly not going to seek to diminish America’s ability to generate safe assets. On the other hand, fiscal policy can (and has) had a noticeable influence on current account imbalances,” Chinn told the conference, whose theme this year is how to foster a dynamic global economy.

Global imbalances worry policymakers because they are seen as a risk to financial stability, though views differ on how much of a threat they pose.

The U.S. Congress faces a looming budget battle when it reconvenes in early September. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump promised to shut down the U.S. government if necessary to secure funding for a wall along the border with Mexico.

“For the United States, although the budget balance is not the largest single contributor to the current account imbalances, it is a substantial factor,” Chinn said.

That said, other factors will continue to keep the deficit in place, including the flow of excess savings to the United States.

A large proportion of capital flowing to the United States takes place in the form of purchases of U.S. government securities, particularly by foreign central banks. China and Japan are the largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt.

“While the particular creditor economies might change over time, the U.S. will tend to continue to run deficits larger than is explicable by other factors,” he said.

With monetary policy tightening in the United States and the euro area and similar action in Japan unlikely in the near future “that particular combination will likely lead to an exacerbation, rather than amelioration, of the U.S. current account deficit,” Chinn said.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. government posts $107 billion deficit in August up 66% since last year

A security guard walks in front of an image of the Federal Reserve following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, DC

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $107 billion budget deficit in August, a 66 percent increase from the same month last year, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.

This compared to a deficit of $64 billion in August 2015, according to Treasury’s monthly budget statement.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $108 billion deficit for last month.

When accounting for calendar adjustments, August would have shown a $118 billion deficit compared with an adjusted $107 billion deficit in the same month in 2015.

The fiscal year-to-date deficit was $621 billion through August, up 17 percent from a $530 billion deficit at the same time last year. There were no calendar adjustments.

Receipts last month totaled $231 billion, a 10 percent increase from August 2015, while outlays stood at $338 billion, a 23 percent rise from the same month a year ago.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. posts $53 billion budget deficit in May

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $53 billion budget deficit in May, a 38 percent drop from the same month last year, the Treasury Department said on Friday.

The government had a deficit of $84 billion in May of 2015, according to the Treasury’s monthly budget statement.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $60 billion deficit for last month.

However, when accounting for calendar adjustments, May would have shown a $102 billion deficit compared with an adjusted $84 billion deficit a year prior.

The current fiscal year-to-date deficit was $407 billion, up 11 percent from a $367 billion deficit at this time last year.

On an adjusted basis, the fiscal year-to-date gap was $413 billion compared with $367 billion at this time last year.

Receipts last month totaled $225 billion, a 6 percent increase from May 2015, while outlays stood at $277 billion, a 7 percent decline from the same month a year ago.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. posts $108 billion dollar deficit in March

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew holds a two dollar note as he speaks during an event about currency redesign hosted by the University of Maryland in College Park, Maryland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $108 billion budget deficit in March, more than double the amount from the same period last year, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.

The government had a deficit of $53 billion in March of 2015, according to the Treasury’s monthly budget statement. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a $104 billion deficit for last month.

Accounting for calendar adjustments, March would have shown a $102 billion deficit compared with an adjusted $89 billion deficit in March 2015.

The current fiscal year-to-date deficit was $461 billion, up 5 percent from a $439 billion deficit this time last year.

Receipts last month totaled $228 billion, while outlays stood at $336 billion.

(Reporting by Megan Cassella; Editing by Andrea Ricci)