$6 Trillion in Government spending and stimulus checks was too good to be true, now we’re paying for it

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • More Misery on the Way: Americans Can’t Afford Gas and Groceries, so Economists Say Recession Very Likely
  • With inflation now at 8.6% and food prices rising the fastest in 40 years, Americans are trying to find ways to get by, and that means less spending.
  • Credit card debt, which dropped during the pandemic as Americans used government stimulus checks to pay down balances, has rebounded to all-time highs.
  • Almost half of the economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say a recession is likely in the next 12 months.
  • Analyst Joel Griffith at the Heritage Foundation, has been runaway government spending.
  • “Look, we spent about 6 trillion dollars extra over the past two years than we normally spend, and nearly every last dollar of that was printed by the Fed to purchase government debt. That’s why we have inflation now”

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Bleak outlook from Poll saying 59% of Manufactures see Inflation leading to Recession

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Poll: Nearly 60% of U.S. Manufacturers See Inflation Leading to Recession
  • Almost six in ten American manufacturers believe ongoing inflation will lead to a recession in the United States, a new survey from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) finds.
  • In the latest NAM survey, more than 59 percent of American manufacturers said they believe inflation is likely to spur a recession in the United States
  • 52 percent said they do not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to avert a recession

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67 percent of Americans are now dipping into savings and using credit as prices soar

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Wall Street Sinks into Bear Market, Recession Possible as Americans Dip into Savings Just to Pay Soaring Bills
  • On Wall Street, there are growing fears a recession could be coming, and a big decision anticipated Wednesday from the Federal Reserve is causing even more concern.
  • The S&P 500, the index tied to most 401K retirement plans, finished down nearly four percent Monday and has now plunged more than 20 percent for the year
  • Inflation is pounding consumers. Everything from gas – now averaging more than $5 a gallon nationally – to groceries is going up.
  • A new survey shows 67 percent of Americans are dipping into savings to pay their bills and some are resorting to credit cards.

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CFO survey shows 68% believe recession will hit in first half of 2023

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower: CNBC CFO survey
  • According to the majority (68%) of CFOs responding to the survey, a recession will occur during the first half of 2023. No CFO forecast a recession any later than the second half of next year, and no CFO thinks the economy will avoid a recession.

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28% surge in individual income taxes this year

Rev 6:5,6 NCV When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse, and its rider held a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard something that sounded like a voice coming from the middle of the four living creatures. The voice said, “A quart of wheat for a day’s pay, and three quarts of barley for a day’s pay, and do not damage the olive oil and wine!”

Important Takeaways:

  • Americans paying most income taxes ever
  • 28% surge in individual income taxes this year
  • Another spurt in 2025 when the Trump tax cuts expire
  • The numbers were higher than the agency predicted last year, and as the economy recovers following the virus crisis, they are expected to go further

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Everyday items, skyrocketing prices…could Recession be next?

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Record gas prices are pushing up everyday costs, dampening economic recovery
  • Americans are facing sticker shock at gas stations across the country, but surging global energy costs are rippling through the economy in other ways, too:
    • Airlines are scaling back on flights. Truckers are adding fuel surcharges. And lawn care companies and mobile dog groomers are upping their service fees.
  • The average price for a gallon of gas jumped 13% this week, according to AAA. Overall gasoline prices are up 38% from a year ago, according to the Labor Department’s latest inflation figures.
  • Goldman Sachs this week lowered its forecast for annual U.S. economic growth, citing “higher oil prices,” and said there is a risk the United States will enter a recession in the next year.

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Higher cost and lower standards of living a harbinger of a coming recession

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Retail expert warns recession just ‘around the corner’
  • You’ve go to 16.6% this year versus the 10.6, the reference the cost of every return is $33 on a $50 item, the profit out of $50 items, only $1. So the retailers are losing a fortune. So that means higher prices and lower standards of living for consumers. And that with the McDonald’s news, today is a harbinger of the recession coming more quickly around the corner.

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Brazil in recession as drought, inflation and interest rates bite

By Marcela Ayres and Camila Moreira

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazil’s economy contracted slightly in the three months to September, government data showed on Thursday, as surging inflation, steep interest rate hikes and a severe drought triggered a recession in Latin America’s largest economy.

The 0.1% decline in Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, reported by official statistics agency IBGE, was below a median forecast for zero growth in a Reuters poll.

Brazil’s economic rebound from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic has sputtered as inflation surged into double digits, forcing the central bank to raise borrowing costs aggressively despite the downturn.

Economists have said that the stubbornly high levels of inflation in Brazil have steadily eroded consumers’ purchasing power, proving a drag on the economy.

Some analysts said Thursday’s weak data may discourage the bank’s monetary policy committee, called Copom, from an even larger interest rate increase at its December meeting.

“Against this backdrop, we no longer see Copom upping the pace of monetary tightening next week,” William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, told clients in a note, forecasting another rate increase of 150 basis points.

Big rate hikes from the central bank, whose autonomy was written into Brazil’s constitution this year, are one more headwind for a weak economy, which is weighing on President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity as he prepares to seek reelection in 2022.

Revised data showed a 0.4% drop in the second quarter, worse than the 0.1% decline reported previously. Two straight quarters of contraction meet the definition of a recession.

Unusually dry weather this year has also hurt key Brazilian crops such as corn and coffee. Vanishing reserves at hydropower dams drove up electricity costs, adding to price shocks.

Agricultural production fell 8.0% in the third quarter, while industrial output was flat and services advanced 1.1%.

Brazil’s auto industry has struggled to ramp up production amid a shortage of components such as microchips in global supply chains. Shortages have also hurt manufacturing in Mexico, whose economy contracted more than expected in the quarter.

WORSE TO COME

Some economists are warning of a deeper downturn next year.

The market outlook for 2022 economic growth has fallen from 2.3% in June to less than 0.6% in the latest central bank poll of economists, released on Monday.

Brazil’s Economy Ministry dismissed that consensus in a statement on Thursday, reaffirming its forecast of economic growth above 2% next year and pointing to recent job creation data as evidence of a resilient recovery.

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 12.6% in the third quarter from 14.2% in the prior quarter, data showed this week, hitting the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic.

“The government has an obvious bias to overestimate (growth) as long as possible. But there comes a point when you can’t,” said José Francisco Gonçalves, chief economist at Banco Fator.

Compared to the third quarter of 2020, Brazil’s economy grew 4.0%, IBGE data showed, below a median forecast of 4.2% growth.

(Reporting by Marcela Ayres in Brasilia and Camila Moreira in Sao Paulo; Writing by Brad Haynes; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Daniel Flynn and Richard Chang)

 

Fed officials say high inflation weighing on consumers and needs to be controlled

By Jonnelle Marte

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday they are vigilant of the ways that higher inflation can affect U.S. households and dampen consumer sentiment and want to get it under control.

While wages are rising for some workers, consumer sentiment is down to a “level that you might associate with a recession,” said Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, citing the consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan.

“I think that’s very much because of the impact that prices have on people,” including those who spend a significant part of their pay on food and gas, Barkin said during a virtual panel organized by the Fed.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank aims for low inflation because it doesn’t want households to stress about rising prices. “That’s one of the reasons why, you know, I think you’ve heard from all of us concerns about the higher levels of inflation that we’ve seen recently and the need to get that back under control,” Bostic said.

The Fed this month began to reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the first step in scaling back the support offered to the U.S. economy during the pandemic. Fed officials would like to wind down the bond purchases before they raise interest rates.

Some policymakers say the Fed should be prepared to act in case inflation lasts longer than expected. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking earlier in the day, said the Fed should “tack in a more hawkish direction” over its next couple of meetings to be prepared in case inflation does not ease.

“If inflation happens to go away we are in great shape for that. If inflation doesn’t go away as quickly as many are currently anticipating it is going to be up to the (Federal Open Market Committee) to keep inflation under control,” Bullard said on Bloomberg Television.

(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte and Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Debt ceiling impasse? Fed’s ‘loathsome’ game plan for the ‘unthinkable’

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says failure to raise the U.S. debt limit could lead to the unthinkable: a default on government payment obligations. That’s an outcome the White House on Friday warned could plunge the economy into recession.

If the impasse in Congress over the $28.5 trillion debt limit isn’t resolved before an October deadline, what would the Federal Reserve – the backstop for U.S. financial markets as the lender of last resort – be prepared to do?

As it turns out, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may already have something of a game plan. The country faced a similar crisis over the debt limit in 2011 and again two years later, and at an unscheduled October 2013 meeting, Fed policymakers – including Powell, who was then a Fed governor, and Yellen, who was the Fed’s vice chair – debated possible actions in response.

The plan included a process for managing government payments, given the Fed’s expectation that Treasury would prioritize principal and interest but would make day-by-day decisions on whether to cover other obligations.

Changes to the Fed’s supervision of banks were also planned. Banks would be allowed to count defaulted Treasuries toward risk-capital requirements, and supervisors would work directly with any bank experiencing a “temporary drop in its regulatory capital ratio.” The U.S. central bank would also direct lenders to give leeway to stressed borrowers.

Policymakers also mapped out an approach to managing market strains and financial stability risks stemming from a technical default.

They readily agreed to some measures, including expanding ongoing bond purchases to include defaulted Treasuries, lending against defaulted securities and through the Fed’s emergency lending window, and conducting repurchase operations to stabilize short-term financial markets.

Other actions sketched out in briefing notes and during the meeting were more controversial, including providing direct support to money markets by buying defaulted Treasury bills, or simultaneously selling Treasuries that are not in default and buying ones that are.

Powell described these approaches as “loathsome.”

“The economics of it are right, but you’d be stepping into this difficult political world and looking like you are making the problem go away,” he said at the time.

Powell added, however, that he wouldn’t rule it out in a catastrophic situation, a point also made by several of his colleagues, including Yellen and John Williams, who at the time was San Francisco Fed president and is now head of the New York Fed.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)