Tag Archives: Consumer Spending

U.S. consumer spending rises, but inflation eroding households purchasing power

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON(Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending surged in August, but outlays adjusted for inflation were weaker than initially thought in the prior month, reinforcing expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as COVID-19 infections flared up.

The report from the Commerce Department on Friday, which showed inflation remaining hot in August, raised the risk of consumer spending stalling in the third quarter, even if consumption accelerates further in September. Inflation-adjusted, or the so-called real consumer spending is what goes into the calculation of gross domestic product.

“Third quarter consumer spending is on track for only a scant gain,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. “If COVID cases keep falling and sentiment turns positive, there is scope for a more solid finish to this tumultuous year.”

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rebounded 0.8% in August. Data for July was revised down to show spending dipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.3% as previously reported.

Consumption was boosted by a 1.2% rise in purchases of goods, reflecting increases in spending on food and household supplies as well as recreational items, which offset a drop in motor vehicle outlays. A global shortage of semiconductors is undercutting the production of automobiles, hurting sales.

Goods spending fell 2.1% in July. Spending on services rose 0.6% in August, supported by housing, utilities and health care. Services, which account for the bulk of consumer spending, increased 1.1% in July. Spending is shifting back to services from goods, but the resurgence in coronavirus cases over summer, driven by the Delta variant, crimped demand for air travel and hotel accommodation as well as sales at restaurants and bars.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending increasing 0.6% in August.

Inflation maintained its upward trend in August, though price pressures have probably peaked. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, climbed 0.3% after increasing by the same margin in July. In the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, matching July’s gain.

The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. The Fed last week upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year to 3.7% from 3.0% back in June. The central bank signaled interest rate hikes may follow more quickly than expected.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has maintained that high inflation is transitory, told lawmakers on Thursday that he anticipated some relief in the months ahead.

Still, inflation could remain high for a while. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed manufacturers experienced longer delays getting raw materials delivered to factories and paid higher prices for inputs in September.

Stocks on Wall Street were mostly higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.

SLOWING GROWTH

High inflation is cutting into spending. Real consumer spending rose 0.4% in August. That followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in July, which was previously reported as a 0.1% dip. With the August and July data in hand, economists predicted that growth in consumer spending would probably brake to around a 1% annualized rate in the third quarter.

Consumer spending grew at a robust 12.0% annualized rate in the April-June quarter, accounting for much of the economy’s 6.7% growth pace. The level of GDP is now above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the wake of the consumer spending data, JPMorgan economists lowered their third-quarter GDP estimate to a 4.0% rate from a 5.0% pace.

Overall, the economy remains supported by record corporate profits. Households accumulated at least $2.5 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic. Coronavirus infections are trending down, which is already leading to a rise in demand for travel and other high-contact services. Businesses need to replenish depleted inventories, which will keep factories humming.

A third report on Friday from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment ticked higher for the first time in three months in September. But a survey from the Conference Board this week showed consumer confidence dropping to a seven-month low in September.

Though personal income gained only 0.2% in August after rising 1.1% in July as an increase in Child Tax Credit payments from the government was offset by decreases in unemployment insurance checks related to the pandemic, wages are rising as companies compete for scarce workers. Wages rose 0.5% in August, which should help to keep spending supported.

But inflation is eroding consumers’ purchasing power, with income at the disposal of households edging up 0.1% after increasing 1.1% in July. The saving rate fell to a still-high 9.4% from 10.1% in July.

“Households still have plenty left in the tank given rising employment and wages, soaring net worth and massive excess savings,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “However, rising prices are eating into spending power, compounding the ongoing lack of supply.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. consumer spending takes breather amid shortages; inflation rises

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending paused in May as shortages hurt motor vehicle purchases, but the supply constraints and increased demand for services helped to lift prices, with the Federal Reserve’s main inflation measure rising by the most in 29 years.

There was, however, some good news on inflation. Consumers this month perceived higher inflation to be temporary, a survey showed on Friday, aligning with the views of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Consumers’ inflation expectations are key as they can influence households’ behavior.

With at least 150 million Americans fully vaccinated against COVID-19, which is allowing the economy to reopen and people to travel, dine out and engage in other activities that were restricted during the pandemic, consumer spending is expected to pick up in the coming months. Trillions of dollars in excess savings and rising household wealth due to gains in stock prices and home values are expected to provide a powerful tailwind.

“Spending growth will shift to services from goods, and drive a strong economic recovery throughout the rest of 2021 and all of 2022,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh. “The biggest drags are higher prices for some goods and services and shortages due to production bottlenecks.”

The unchanged reading in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, followed an upwardly revised 0.9% jump in April, the Commerce Department said. Consumer spending was previously reported to have increased 0.5% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would rise 0.4% in May.

Motor vehicles and some household appliances are scarce because of supply bottlenecks stemming from the pandemic. A global shortage of semiconductors is hampering motor vehicle production. Spending is also starting to shift back to the services part of the economy, which accounts for two-thirds of consumer spending, though the pace last month was insufficient to offset the drag from goods.

Spending on services rose 0.7%, led by recreation, restaurants and hotels as well as housing and utilities. Spending on goods fell 1.3%, with outlays of long-lasting goods like motor vehicles tumbling 2.8%. Goods spending surged as the pandemic confined people to their homes.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5% after advancing 0.7% in April. In the 12 months through May, the so-called core PCE price index shot up 3.4%, the largest gain since April 1992. The core PCE price index rose 3.1% on a year-on-year basis in April.

The core PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. Year-on-year inflation is accelerating in part as last spring’s weak readings drop from the calculation.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading largely higher, with the S&P 500 index hitting a record high as investors focused on the moderation in the monthly inflation reading. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mostly lower.

NO RUNAWAY INFLATION

Though the so-called base effects likely peaked in May, inflation will probably remain high in the near term because of the supply constraints and worker shortages, which are boosting wage growth.

“While we foresee increased inflation stickiness, with core PCE inflation hovering around 3.0% in the second half (of the year), we don’t foresee runaway inflation,” said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

Consumers seem to agree. The University of Michigan consumer survey’s one-year inflation expectation dropped to 4.2% in June from a decade-high 4.6% in May. The survey noted that “consumers also believed that the price surges will mostly be temporary.”

The five-to-10-year inflation expectation fell to 2.8% this month from 3.0% in May. Fed officials put more emphasis on the five-to-10-year series.

Powell acknowledged this week that “inflation has increased notably in recent months,” but told lawmakers that the U.S. central bank “will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation.”

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.4% last month after rising 0.3% in April. Despite May’s drop in the so-called real consumer spending, consumption is running higher than its pace in the first quarter.

Gross domestic product growth estimates for this quarter are around a 9% annualized rate, which would be an acceleration from the 6.4% pace logged in the first quarter. Economists believe the economy could achieve growth of at least 7% this year. That would be the fastest growth since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, its worst performance in 74 years.

In addition to the supply squeeze, the ebbing boost from government stimulus checks likely restrained consumer spending last month. Transfer payments from the government dropped 11.7%. That resulted in personal income falling 2.0% after declining 13.1% in April.

But there is ample fuel to drive spending. Wages gained 0.8% after rising 1.0% in April. The saving rate fell to a still-lofty 12.4% from 14.5% in April. Households accumulated at least $2.5 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic.

From July through December some households will receive income under the expanded Child Tax Credit program, which will soften the blow of an early termination of government-funded unemployment benefits in 26 states.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Pent-up demand, shortages fuel U.S. inflation

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices surged in April, with a measure of underlying inflation blowing past the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and posting its largest annual gain since 1992, because of pent-up demand and supply constraints as the economy reopens.

The strong inflation readings reported by the Commerce Department on Friday had been widely anticipated as the pandemic’s grip eases, thanks to vaccinations, and will have no impact on monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that higher inflation will be transitory.

The U.S. central bank slashed its benchmark overnight interest rate to near zero last year and is pumping money into the economy through monthly bond purchases. It has signaled it could tolerate higher inflation for some time to offset years in which inflation was lodged below its target, a flexible average.

The supply constraints largely reflect a shift in demand towards goods and away from services during the pandemic. A reversal is underway, with Americans flying to vacation destinations and staying at hotels among other activities. Year-on-year inflation is also accelerating as last spring’s weak readings drop from the calculation.

“Many goods are in short supply amid very strong demand and supply chain disruptions, and some services prices are up sharply as consumers start to go out again,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “Shortages of labor in some industries are also contributing to higher prices. But many of these factors will prove transitory, and inflation will slow in the second half of 2021.”

Consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.7% last month amid strong gains in both goods and services. That was the biggest rise in the so-called core PCE price index since October 2001 and followed a 0.4% gain in March.

In the 12 months through April, the core PCE price index vaulted 3.1%, the most since July 1992, after rising 1.9% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the core PCE price index rising 0.6% in April and surging 2.9% year-on-year.

The core PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher, though gains were capped by the rising price pressures. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were higher.

“Inflation is up, but real yields are still low,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia. “This is basically the transitory sweet spot.”

INCOME PLUNGES

Some economists are not convinced that higher inflation will be temporary.

A survey from the University of Michigan on Friday showed consumers’ one-year inflation expectations shot up to 4.6% in May from 3.4% in April, hurting household sentiment. Their five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% from 2.7% last month.

“Concerns about the future can cause households to become more conservative in their spending,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania. “The Fed is guessing that the rise in inflation will be temporary, and it better be correct.”

Though consumer spending moderated last month as the boost to incomes from stimulus checks faded, households have accumulated at least $2.3 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic, which should underpin demand. Wages are also rising as companies seek to attract labor to increase production.

Generous unemployment benefits funded by the government, problems with child care and fears of contracting the virus, even with vaccines widely accessible, as well as pandemic-related retirements have left companies scrambling for labor.

That is despite nearly 10 million Americans being officially unemployed. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.5% last month. Data for March was revised higher to show spending surging 4.7% instead of 4.2% as previously reported.

The rise in spending was in line with expectations. Spending was held back by a 0.6% drop in outlays on goods. Though purchases of long-lasting goods such as motor vehicles rose 0.5%, spending on nondurable goods tumbled 1.3%. Outlays on services increased 1.1%, led by spending on recreation, hotel accommodation and at restaurants.

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending slipped 0.1% after jumping 4.1% in March. Despite last month’s dip in the so-called real consumer spending, March’s solid increase put consumption on a higher growth trajectory in the second quarter.

Personal income plunged 13.1% after surging 20.9% in March. With spending exceeding income, the saving rate dropped to a still-high 14.9% from 27.7% in March. Wages increased 1.0% for a second straight month.

Consumer spending powered ahead at a 11.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, contributing to the economy’s 6.4% growth pace. Most economists expect double-digit growth this quarter, which would position the economy to achieve growth of at least 7% this year, which would be the fastest since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, its worst performance in 74 years.

Growth prospects for the second quarter were bolstered by another report from the Commerce Department showing the goods trade deficit narrowed 7.3% to $85.2 billion in April, with exports rising and imports declining.

But inventory at retailers fell 1.6%, pulled down by a 7.0% plunge in automobile stocks as the sector struggles with a global semiconductor shortage.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)

Fiscal stimulus powers U.S. economic growth in first quarter

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter as the government gave money to mostly lower-income households, fueling consumer spending and setting the course for what is expected to be the strongest performance this year in nearly four decades.

The government largesse also extended to businesses, especially in the high-contact services industry. The massive fiscal stimulus and easing anxiety over COVID-19, with all adult Americans now eligible for vaccination against the virus, have resulted in a faster economic rebound in the United States compared to its global rivals.

The second-fastest gross domestic product growth since the third quarter of 2003, reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, left output just 0.9% shy of its level at the end of 2019. Economists expect a full recovery from the pandemic recession, which started in February 2020, in late 2023.

The report is a boost for President Joe Biden as he celebrated 100 days in the White House.

“In early 2021, the economy was served a strong cocktail of improving health conditions and rapid vaccinations along with a fizzy dose of fiscal stimulus and a steady flow of monetary policy support,” said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Looking ahead, we foresee the economy’s spring bloom turning into a summer boom.”

GDP increased at a 6.4% annualized rate last quarter, the government said in its advance estimate for the first three months of the year. That followed a 4.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest first-quarter increase in growth since 1984.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth would increase at a 6.1% pace in the January-March period.

Income at the disposal of households before accounting for inflation surged by a whopping $2.36 trillion after decreasing $402.1 billion in the fourth quarter. As result, consumer spending jumped at a 10.7% rate, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles, furniture, recreational goods and electronics. Consumers also dined out, stayed at hotels and gambled.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 2.3% pace in the fourth quarter. Some of the stimulus money was stashed away, with savings ballooning to $4.12 trillion from $2.25 trillion in the fourth quarter. Economists estimate households have accumulated at least $2 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic.

The government has provided nearly $6 trillion in COVID-19 relief over the past year. Robust demand in the first quarter pushed against supply constraints, leading businesses to draw down inventories, limiting the rise in GDP growth.

Excluding inventories, government and trade, the economy grew at a 10.6% rate last quarter.

The rapidly accelerating growth could revive fears about the economy overheating. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday acknowledged the burgeoning domestic activity, but the U.S. central bank gave no sign it was ready to reduce its extraordinary support for the recovery.

The booming economy could also erode support among moderate Democrats for Biden’s ambitious economic agenda. Biden on Wednesday unveiled a sweeping $1.8 trillion package for families and education in his first joint speech to Congress. Republicans oppose more stimulus, now worried about swelling debt. The new package and an earlier infrastructure and jobs plan total around $4 trillion, rivaling the annual federal budget.

“The second quarter will be hotter, people have money to spend as they are able to go shopping and traveling again,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “Production is being ramped up to rebuild inventories. President Biden and (Fed) Chairman (Jerome) Powell, do we need all the stimuli?”

U.S. stocks were mostly higher. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

POWERFUL MOMENTUM

Inflation has accelerated, but many economists, including Fed officials, expect it will be transitory as the labor market remains 8.4 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.

The labor market is gradually recovering. In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 553,000 during the week ended April 24.

While claims have dropped from a record 6.149 million in early April 2020, they are above the range of 200,000 to 250,000 that is viewed as consistent with a healthy labor market.

There were 16.6 million people receiving unemployment benefits in the first week of April.

“We’re still probably a couple years away from pre-pandemic employment levels, but based on the powerful economic momentum built up in the first quarter, we should return close to a fully-functioning economy in the second quarter,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia.

Economists forecast growth this year could top 7%, which would be the fastest since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, the worst performance in 74 years.

Growth in the first quarter was also driven by business spending on equipment, which posted a third straight quarter of double-digit expansion. But business investment in nonresidential structures fell for a sixth straight quarter as a rebound in mining exploration, shafts and wells was offset by a drop in commercial and healthcare buildings.

Residential investment contributed to GDP growth for a third straight quarter. But trade was a drag for the third consecutive quarter as some of the domestic demand was satiated with imports. Inventories were drawn down at a rate of 85.5 billion.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao)

U.S. goods trade deficit hits record high in March

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit in goods jumped to a record high in March, suggesting trade was a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, but that was likely offset by robust domestic demand amid massive government aid and easing pandemic stress.

Economic activity in the United States has rebounded more quickly compared to its global rivals. The pent-up demand is drawing in imports, eclipsing a recovery in exports and keeping the overall trade deficit elevated. The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed inventories at retailers fell sharply in March, underscoring the strong domestic demand.

“The widening in the goods deficit suggests that trade will be a drag on first-quarter GDP,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “This won’t be a big issue, as other parts of the economy are still doing well, such as business investment in equipment and consumer spending.”

The goods trade deficit surged 4.0% to $90.6 billion last month, the highest in the history of the series. Exports of goods accelerated 8.7% to $142.0 billion. They were boosted by shipments of motor vehicles, industrial supplies, consumer and capital goods, and food.

The jump in exports was offset by a 6.8% advance in imports to $232.6 billion. Imports rose across the board. There were large gains in imports of motor vehicles, industrial supplies, consumer goods and food. Capital goods imports also rose solidly.

“The goods deficit will start to shrink by the end of 2021 and into 2022,” said Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “As the pandemic comes under control in the United States, American consumers will spend less on imported goods, shrinking imports, and foreigners will buy more U.S. exports as their economies recover further.”

Stocks on Wall Street were mixed. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.

The report was published ahead of Thursday’s advance first-quarter gross domestic product data, which is expected to show the economy grew at a robust 6.1% annualized rate in the first three months of the year after expanding at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

That would be the second-fastest growth pace since the third quarter of 2003. Strong consumer spending and business investment as well as the housing market are expected to boost growth.

The rise in COVID-19 vaccinations and the White House’s $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue package have allowed for greater economic re-engagement, boosting consumer spending, hiring and business spending on equipment.

Some of the goods imported in March ended up in warehouses at wholesalers, which could blunt the drag on GDP growth from trade. The Commerce Department reported wholesale inventories shot up 1.4% last month after rising 0.9% in February.

But stocks at retailers tumbled 1.4% after gaining 0.1% in February. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.6% after advancing 1.4% in February.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. consumer spending falls again; inflation gradually rising

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month in December amid renewed business restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 and a temporary expiration of government-funded benefits for millions of unemployed Americans.

The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed inflation steadily picking up last month. Stirring price pressures were also corroborated by other data showing a solid increase in labor costs in the fourth quarter. Though inflation is expected to breach the Federal Reserve’s 2% target this year, the U.S. central bank is seen maintaining its ultra-easy policy stance for a while as the economy battles the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slipped 0.2% last month as outlays at restaurants declined. Spending at hospitals also fell, likely as consumers stayed away in fear of contracting the coronavirus.

Households also cut back spending on recreation. Consumer spending tumbled 0.7% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending falling 0.4% in December.

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending decreased 0.6% in December after dropping 0.7% in November. That likely sets a lower base for consumer spending in the first quarter.

The data was included in Thursday’s advance gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter, which showed the economy growing at a 4% annualized rate after a record 33.4% pace in the third quarter. Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% rate last quarter following a spectacular 41.0% growth pace in the July-September period.

Economic growth is expected to decelerate to below a 2% rate in the first quarter as it works through the disruptions from a virus surge in winter. The government provided nearly $900 billion in additional relief in late December. This together with an anticipated pick-up in the distribution of vaccines is likely to spur growth by summer.

President Joe Biden has also unveiled a recovery plan worth $1.9 trillion, though the package is likely to be pared down amid worries about the nation’s swelling debt.

U.S. stocks opened lower after Johnson & Johnson said its single-dose vaccine was 72% effective in preventing COVID-19 in the United States, but a lower rate of 66% was observed globally. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.

INCOME REBOUNDS

The late December stimulus package included direct cash payments to some households and renewed a $300 unemployment supplement until March 14. Government-funded programs for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the state unemployment programs as well as those who have exhausted their benefits were also extended.

Last month, personal income rebounded 0.6%, boosted the unemployment benefits payouts as well as a rise in wages. Income tumbled 1.3% in November. Americans increased savings last month. The saving rate rose to 13.7% from 12.9% in November.

Despite weak consumer spending inflation edged higher. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy component increased 0.3% after being unchanged in November. In the 12 months through December, the so-called core PCE price index increased 1.5% after advancing 1.4% in November.

The core PCE index is the preferred inflation measure for the Fed’s 2% target, a flexible average.

The gradually firming inflation environment was reinforced by separate report from the Labor Department on Friday showing its Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7% last quarter after advancing 0.5% in the third quarter. That lifted the year-on-year rate of increase to 2.5% from 2.4% in the third quarter.

The ECI is widely viewed by policymakers and economists as one of the better measures of labor market slack and a predictor of core inflation as it adjusts for composition and job quality changes. Economists had forecast the ECI climbing 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

Wages and salaries increased 0.9% after gaining 0.4% in the third quarter. They were up 2.6% year-on-year. The private sector accounted for the surge in wages and salaries. Benefits rose 0.6%, matching the third quarter’s increase.

Inflation is seen accelerating as weak readings last March and April drop from the calculation. It is also expected to be boosted by a strengthening in economic growth, driven by fiscal stimulus and the inoculation of more Americans against COVID-19.

Bottlenecks in the supply chain are expected to contribute to higher inflation. Recent manufacturing surveys have shown a surge in price measures for both raw materials and finished products.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Andrea Ricci)

COVID-19 wreaks havoc on U.S. economy; 2020 performance worst in 74 years

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy contracted at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic depressed consumer spending and business investment, pushing millions of Americans out of work and into poverty.

Though a recovery is underway, momentum slowed significantly as the year wound down amid a resurgence in coronavirus infections and exhaustion of nearly $3 trillion in relief money from the government. The moderation is likely to persist at least through the first three months of 2021.

The economy’s prospects hinge on the distribution of vaccines to fight the virus. President Joe Biden has unveiled a recovery plan worth $1.9 trillion, but some lawmakers have balked at the price tag soon after the government provided nearly $900 billion in additional stimulus in late December.

“The economy will never move further away from the edge of the cliff of recession unless there is a resurgence in final demand, meaning consumers have to come out in force to make the recovery a permanent one,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Gross domestic product decreased 3.5% in 2020, the biggest drop since 1946, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That followed 2.2% growth in 2019 and was the first annual decline in GDP since the 2007-09 Great Recession.

Nearly every sector, with the exception of government and the housing market, contracted last year. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, plunged 3.9%, the worst performance since 1932. The economy tumbled into recession last February.

Delays by the government to offer another rescue package and renewed business disruptions caused by the virus restricted GDP growth to a 4.0% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The big step-back from a historic 33.4% growth pace in the third quarter left GDP 2.5% below its level at the end of 2019.

The economy is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate near zero and pledged to continue pumping money into the economy through bond purchases, noting that “the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months.”

With the virus still raging, economists are expecting growth to slow to around a 1.0% rate in the first quarter, before regaining speed by summer as the additional stimulus kicks in and more Americans get vaccinated.

“We foresee record-breaking consumer spending growth in 2021 with households benefiting from a watered-down $1.2 trillion version of Biden’s rescue plan, vaccine diffusion gradually reaching two thirds of Americans by July and employment accelerating this spring,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.

K-SHAPED RECOVERY

The services sector, especially restaurants, bars and hotels, has borne the brunt of the coronavirus recession, disproportionately impacting lower-wage earners, who tend to be women and minorities. That has led to a so-called K-shaped recovery, where better-paid workers are doing well while lower-paid workers are losing out.

The stars of the recovery have been the housing market and manufacturing as those who are still employed seek larger homes away from city centers, and buy electronics for home offices and schooling. Manufacturing’s share of GDP has increased to 11.9% from 11.6% at the end of 2019.

A survey by professors at the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame showed poverty increased by 2.4 percentage points to 11.8% in the second half of 2020, boosting the ranks of the poor by 8.1 million people.

Rising poverty was underscored by persistent labor market weakness. In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 847,000 for the week ended Jan. 23. While that was down 67,000 from the prior week, claims remain well above their 665,000 peak during the 2007-09 Great Recession.

Including a government-funded program for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the regular state unemployment programs 1.3 million people filed claims last week.

The economy shed jobs in December for the first time in eight months. Only 12.4 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April have been recovered. About 18.3 million Americans were receiving unemployment checks in early 2021.

“The labor market is struggling this winter, but better times are ahead,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Lack of jobs and the temporary expiration of a government weekly jobless subsidy curtailed growth in consumer spending to a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter after a record 41% pace in the July-September quarter.

But business investment grew at a 13.8% rate, with spending on equipment rising at a 24.9% pace. Spending on nonresidential structures rebounded after four straight quarterly declines.

Businesses also accumulated inventories last quarter, contributing to GDP growth. But the inventory build pulled in more imports, leading to a larger trade deficit, which subtracted from output. The housing market recorded another quarter of double-digit growth, thanks to historically low mortgage rates. Government spending was weak.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

Analysis: Trump or Biden, new U.S. president faces troubled economy

By Ann Saphir and Jonnelle Marte

(Reuters) – It’s still not clear yet if the next U.S. president will be incumbent Donald Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden, but whoever triumphs will face monumental challenges on the economic front.

The recession has been ugly. It has wiped away more than a year of economic output and more than five years of jobs growth.

The workforce is now smaller than it was a year before Trump first took office.

One bright spot – consumer spending – is stronger than it was right after the pandemic exploded in March, but still only back to where it was last June.

Housing prices are on the rise, which is a great thing for U.S. homeowners but at the same time is worsening the affordability crisis for aspiring home buyers.

Manufacturing activity – a key concern in the Midwestern battleground states – has rebounded, but manufacturing employment is in worse shape than employment overall.

And the coronavirus is still surging across most of the United States. Nearly 6,000 people died last week, and there’s growing concern that the U.S. might need to reinstate lockdowns that happened across Europe in order to get it under control.

But despite signs the economy has begun to slow again amid another viral onslaught, “it is almost certain that the economy will get better over the course of 2021,” says Jason Furman, a key economic advisor to Barack Obama, the last U.S. president elected during a time of economic turmoil.

Late 2021 is still a long ways away, not just in political terms but for those living paycheck to paycheck, or out of work.

Federal Reserve policymaker projections put unemployment at 5.5% by the end of next year – worse than the 4.7% when Trump was first elected, but an improvement over the current 7.9%.

Beyond jobs lost and economic output curtailed, either Trump or Biden will face a list of long-term headwinds including deepening inequality, rising federal debt and tattered international trade relations.

In the run-up to the election, Trump consistently polled better than Biden on his ability to create jobs and manage the economy, if not the virus.

But even with the election outcome uncertain, and likely to remain so for some time amid legal challenges, stock market investors like what they see.

That’s partly because Republicans look likely to keep their hold on the Senate, leaving policy priorities relatively unchanged if it’s Trump emerging the winner, or as preventive force to a president Biden from trying to push through any big policy changes should he come out on top in the ballot box.

It’s also because Senate Majority Leader Republican Mitch McConnell signaled Wednesday he was open to a new coronavirus aid bill in the “lame duck” session before the elected members of Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are sworn in.

For the still-weak economy, a lot will depend on the timing, size and shape of a pandemic relief package, which eluded lawmakers and the White House before the election.

A more modest fiscal package could mean “the growth outlook and corporate profits may not be as vigorous as hoped,” said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING.

A Biden presidency with a majority Republican Senate could offer the worst case for the economy in 2021 because Republicans are likely to oppose a substantial stimulus package, said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

That would be bad news for the millions of low- and middle-income Americans out of work and struggling to find jobs in sectors such as travel and entertainment that are likely to remain moribund until the pandemic is under better control.

A scenario where Trump is re-elected and the Senate stays in Republican control could potentially result in more stimulus because Trump has advocated for more stimulus and could have more sway if he is re-elected, Luzzetti said.

Whatever the election outcome, any aid package should provide additional assistance for the unemployed, help for small businesses and assistance for state and local governments, to keep economic momentum going, Luzzetti said.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir and Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Heather Timmons, Paul Simao and Edward Tobin)

Americans on COVID-19 jobless benefits spent more than when working, study shows

By Jonnelle Marte

(Reuters) – Americans who received enhanced unemployment benefits due to the coronavirus pandemic spent more than when they were working, a study released on Thursday said, adding to concerns about a steep fall in spending when the emergency benefits expire.

The $600 weekly supplement added to jobless benefits as part of the CARES Act helped unemployed households spend 10% more after receiving benefits than they did before the pandemic, according to research by the JP Morgan Chase Institute.

Researchers analyzed transactions for 61,000 households that received unemployment benefits between March and May. Spending dropped for all households as the virus spread and led to business shutdowns, but then rose when households began receiving jobless benefits, the study found.

That contrasts with a typical recession, when households receiving unemployment benefits usually cut spending by 7% because regular jobless benefits amount to only a fraction of a person’s prior earnings, the research found.

The analysis highlighted how the additional unemployment benefits are helping to prop up the U.S. economy and consumer spending after the pandemic led to a surge in joblessness across the country.

More than 30 million Americans are estimated to be receiving unemployment benefits – and they could be pushed off an income cliff when the supplemental benefits, which are due to expire at the end of July, are withdrawn.

“Our estimates suggest that expiration will result in large spending cuts, with potentially negative effects on both households and macroeconomic activity,” the researchers wrote.

The data also reflected the financial pain faced by households that encountered big delays in collecting benefits after states across the country were overwhelmed by applications.

Households that had to wait several weeks for their first unemployment check to arrive cut spending by about 20%, the study found. Spending recovered after the checks arrived.

(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte; editing by Richard Pullin)

U.S. consumer spending strong; manufacturing struggling

FILE PHOTO: People tour The Shops during the grand opening of The Hudson Yards development, a residential, commercial, and retail space on Manhattan's West side in New York City, New York, U.S., March 15, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales surged in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, which could help to assuage financial market fears that the economy was heading into recession.

The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Thursday, however, will likely not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month as news from the manufacturing sector remains dour, underscoring the darkening outlook for the economy against the backdrop of trade tensions and slowing growth overseas.

A key part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since June 2007, triggering a stock market sell-off. An inverted Treasury yield curve is historically a reliable predictor of looming recessions.

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. The Fed lowered its short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month, citing the acrimonious U.S.-China trade war and slowing global economies.

But the data could push markets to dial back expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut next month.

“So yes, consumers are lifting economic growth and easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut more aggressively, but the trade war itself, and the rhetoric that accompanies it will push for more rate cuts,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Retail sales increased 0.7% last month after gaining 0.3% in June, the government said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise 0.3% in July. Compared to July last year, retail sales increased 3.4%.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 1.0% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.7% in June. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

U.S. stock index futures extended gains after the release of the data. U.S. Treasury yields rose while the dollar <.DXY> was slightly weaker against a basket of currencies.

STRONG LABOR MARKET

July’s gain in core retail sales suggested strong consumer spending early in the third quarter, though the pace will likely slow from the April-June quarter’s robust 4.3% annualized rate. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is being underpinned by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly half a century.

While a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed an increase in the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits last week, the trend in claims continued to point to a strong labor market.

Solid consumer spending is blunting some of the hit on the economy from the downturn in manufacturing, which is underscored by weak business investment. There are, however, red flags for the labor market coming from manufacturing.

The sector’s struggles were highlighted by a third report from the Fed on Thursday showing factory production dropped 0.4% in July. Output at factories has declined more than 1.5% since December 2018. Manufacturing, which makes up about 12% of the economy, is also being weighed down by an inventory overhang, especially in the automotive sector.

Manufacturing productivity tumbled at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the second quarter, with factories cutting hours for workers, another report from the Labor Department showed.

Manufacturing’s troubles appear to have persisted into the third quarter. Though a report from the Philadelphia Fed on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowed less than expected in August amid an increase in new orders, manufacturers reported hiring fewer workers.

A measure of factory employment dropped to its lowest level since November 2016. The weakness in factory employment in the region that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware was mirrored by another survey from the New York Fed. Activity in New York state was little changed this month, with employment measures deteriorating further.

“The health of factories is still an important driver of growth and the soft patch for production remains a factor that is keeping economic growth in the slow lane,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the second quarter, decelerating from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 2.0% rate.

In July, auto sales fell 0.6% after rising 0.3% in June. Receipts at service stations rebounded 1.8%, reflecting higher gasoline prices. Sales at building material stores gained 0.2%.

Receipts at clothing stores increased 0.8%. Online and mail-order retail sales jumped 2.8%, the most in six months, after rising 1.9% in June. They were likely boosted by Amazon.com Inc’s <AMZN.O> Prime Day.

Receipts at furniture stores rose 0.3%. Sales at restaurants and bars accelerated 1.1%. But spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores dropped 1.1% last month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)