Tag Archives: Extreme Weather

El Nino to Bring Blessing but Possible Disaster for the Pacific

The El Nino weather pattern is taking shape and according to scientists there is no way this El Nino is going to fail from giving rain to some areas in California and elsewhere that are desperate for rain.  

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, Los Angeles Times reported. “And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal.”

Rainfall opportunities this week across the Southwest may be the beginning of more substantial drought relief heading into the winter as an El Niño-fueled weather pattern takes shape in the region.

While most are calling this unusual and very strong El Nino an answered prayer there are countries who are suffering already with lack of food and crops dying off.  Papua New Guinea’s drought has already claimed two dozen lives, and the looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when over 23,000 people died.  

Forecasters say that this El Nino could leave 4 million people in the Pacific without food or drinking water.

“El Niño has the potential to trigger a regional humanitarian emergency and we estimate as many as 4.1 million people are at risk from water shortages, food insecurity and disease across the Pacific,” Sune Gudnitz, head of the Pacific region office of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.

Latest Study Warns “Day After Tomorrow” Ice Age Closer Than We Think

When the apocalyptic film first released, critics from both the entertainment and science communities ridiculed the movie over the possibility of climate change having such an extreme affect on the world. However, a recent study by researchers from the University of Southampton has found that we are closer to a “Day After Tomorrow” scenario than we thought.

In the film, climate warming results in the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a major current in the Atlantic Ocean that has a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic. This leads to New York being flooded, tornadoes in Los Angeles, and finally the north hemisphere freezing and experiencing an Ice Age.

Researchers discovered that if global warming and the collapse of the AMOC occur at the same time, the Earth will cool for a period of 20 years. After the 20 years, global warming would continue as if the AMOC never collapsed and the global average temperature would offset by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. They used an advanced climate model at Germany’s Max-Planck Institute to simulate the conditions.

“The planet earth recovers from the AMOC collapse in about 40 years when global warming continues at present-day rates, but near the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic (including the British Isles) it takes more than a century before temperature is back to normal,” Professor Sybren Drijfhout, from Ocean and Earth Science Department at the University of Southampton, said in the release.

The AMOC depends on a connect of the warm north waters and the cool southern waters that flow deep in the North Atlantic. Due to global warming, the Greenland ice sheet has begun to melt into the AMOC, affecting the balance of the warm and cold waters. Currently, it is causing the AMOC to slow down, but it will eventually collapse.

While the climate sequence in the movie is sped up and exaggerated, the researchers still noted that the consequences from the AMOC collapse would be no less cause for worry.

The simulation showed that Western Europe would be hit the hardest by cold temperatures but America would have to contend with floods. Sea levels on the U.S. East Coast would rise more than three feet, and the UK, Denmark, and the Netherlands would see a 35-degree temperature drop.

“This would affect hundreds of millions of people,” Drijfhout said, “At least temporarily, Europe would suffer conditions that would look like the Little Ice Age of the Middle Ages.”

“When it comes to climate change, we are playing a dangerous game,” he added.

“A Different Kind of Bad” 2nd Wave of Flooding to Hit South Carolina Coast

Predictions for more rain in South Carolina are throwing more concerns on an already battered state as the low areas of the coast brace for the water heading their way.

Gov. Nikki Haley said at a news conference that people in flood-prone parts of four counties should “strongly consider evacuating,” including the 10,000 residents of Georgetown.

“If you’re in the area of Georgetown you’re going to see people knocking on your door telling you to get out,” she said.

The Governor is concerned that residents who have already gone through the historic rainfall and have been through hurricanes, will be complacent about this new wave of flooding heading their way.  “This is a different kind of bad.”

Churches have risen to provide essential support for those affected, according to Vocativ, an online publisher that used geo-location technology to assess social media posts from areas hardest hit by the flooding,

NewSpring Church, which has 10 locations throughout the state, has launched a massive effort tagged #FloodSCWithLove to provide aid to families affected by the disaster.

The church has delivered truckloads of supplies, including water, non-perishable food items and blankets, to local shelters.  Other churches have manned together to volunteer and also help distribute these much needed items.  

Utah Flooding Death Toll Rises

The death toll in Utah’s flash flooding has reached 17.

Officials say that 12 of the dead were from two families that had packed into vehicles and drove to watch the water.  A wall of water apparently smashed into them and threw them into the rushing flow.

Officials admitted that two of the victims from the cars were found all the way into Arizona.

Three people were rescued and according to the Associated Press they were all children.

Hildale, Utah mayor Phillip Barlow called the event a “100 year flood” and that it was a “wake-up call” for the town.

Resident of Hildale told reporters that what happened with the vehicles full of families is not uncommon for the area.  They said that downpours were something of a community event and people would come out to watch.

Officials also said the search for missing people continues and have urged people not to come to the area.

“This is going to be a heartbreaking night,” the Utah Division of Emergency Management said in a statement Monday night. “Our prayers are with the search and rescue teams and those families who are aching for their loved ones.”

New Study Warns of “Grey Swan” Hurricane

A new study published in the journal Nature says that the United States could see a hurricane that dwarfs the hurricane that decimated New Orleans and the gulf coast a decade ago.

The report calls the storms “grey swan” hurricanes in a new term for weather researchers.  The term “black swan” has been in place to describe extremely severe hurricanes that are unpredictable and come on as a surprise to meteorologists.

A “grey swan,” the study says, is completely predictable.  And the study also says that three global cities are most likely to see the storms: Cairns, Australia; Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Tampa, Florida.

“When you do hundreds and hundreds of thousands of events, you’re going to see hurricanes that are unlike anything you’ve seen in history,” MIT’s Kerry Emanuel , a key theoretician behind the equations determining the “maximum potential intensity” of a hurricane, told the Washington Post.

The report says that because of the location of Tampa, near a continental shelf that makes the water much more shallow overall than on the eastern side of Florida, it provides the potential for higher storm surges from a massive storm.

“One can get much larger surges where the offshore waters are shallow, as is true along the west, but not the east coast of Florida. Also, surges can amplify by being funneled into bays,” Emanuel said.

One major hurricane researcher says despite the report’s ominous tone, it’s more important to focus on right now.

“It’s much more important to focus on what could happen this year or next than it is to worry about a mega storm of the future, ‘grey swan’ or otherwise,” said Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel. “Numerous cities in the U.S. and around the world are frighteningly vulnerable to the storms that Mother Nature can conjure up with the ingredients available today.”

Heat Waves, Droughts More Likely To Mix

Scientists have built the case that heat waves and droughts are now more likely to mix in the United States than at any point in the nation’s history.

“Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States,” Omid Mazdiyasni and Amir AghaKouchak, who study climate and hydrology trends at UC Irvine, wrote in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study shows that in the 20 years between 1990 and 2010, heat waves and droughts took place simultaneously more frequently than between 1960 and 1980.  In most cases, the two overlapped more than 50% more during the latter period of time.

States along the southern portion of the nation faced the most occurrences of the combined factors.

The study also examined damage to society and overall health from the combination of the heat waves and drought.  They cited a situation in 2003 where Europe was struck with the combo and it lead directly or indirectly to 15,000 deaths in France.

El Nino Could Be Strongest In 50 Years

Meteorologists say that El Nino could be one of the strongest in the last half century and could bring significant amounts of rainfall to California.

The forecasters say the storms might not break the drought that has gripped the Golden State.

“Current rain deficits are way too large,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno to Fox News. “Even if California receives the rain that fell in 1997-98, it will not come close to ending the long-term drought.”

California currently has 71 percent of the state in “extreme to exceptional drought” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The forecasters at AccuWeather say that the heavy rains could be problems for California.

“A strong El Niño could be good news for the extreme drought in California,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “Unfortunately, a sudden turn to a stormy winter could also result in dangerous mudslides and flash flooding for the state.”

However, it’s not just California officials and forecasters that are concerned about El Nino.  Texas officials say the change to El Nino could bring significant flooding to the Lone Star State.

“The latest global model shows that in August, we’re dry in the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, but wet in the Four Corners with the monsoon kicking,” Paul Pastelok, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather said to the Dallas Morning News. “Then you look at September, and the upper high breaks down. The Four Corners region is still wet, but some of that moisture starts to leak out. And when we get to October, the model has northern Texas with moderately above-normal rainfall.”

“After that, we’ll see a bull’s-eye for precipitation just east of Dallas into Louisiana.”

Freak Rainstorm Washes Away California Highway Bridge

The California Highway Patrol (CHP) confirmed that heavy rains in a remote desert area of California has washed away an elevated part of Interstate 10 including a highway.

The CHP told the Los Angeles Times that 30 feet of the eastbound highway “is washed away and bridge is gone.”

The highway, the most direct route between Los Angeles and Phoenix, averages more than 20,000 cars a day.  Now the vehicles will have to travel hundreds of miles out of the way Interstate 8 or Interstate 40.

Forecasters say the storm was a foreshadowing of what could be striking California later this year with a strong El Nino season.  Tropical Storm Dolores, which roared far off the Mexican and California coasts, allowed for muggy and rainy weather to reach an area decimated by crippling drought.

“Even though Dolores is a pretty good wake-up call for us, we should start preparing for late August or early September,” Stuart Seto, an National Weather Service specialist, said to the Los Angeles Times.

The storms that blew through Southern California brought flash flooding in San Bernardino and Riverside counties.  The storms brought dangerous lightning, hail and high surf to the region.

The storm was so rare for this time of the year that the Anaheim Angels baseball team had a game against the Boston Red Sox rained out…the first rainout for the team in 20 years and 1,609 consecutive home games.

Pakistan Heat Wave Death Toll Skyrockets

The death toll from the heat wave in Karachi, Pakistan has skyrocketed in the last 24 hours.

Reported yesterday at close to 225 victims of the heat, the official toll now stands at over 650 people.  Morgue officials say they are overwhelmed by the number of bodies and that hospitals throughout the region have declared a state of emergency.

Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center, the area’s largest hospital, reported treating over 3,000 patients in the last few days.  The city’s main morgue is over capacity.

Authorities have closed schools and even some government offices in an attempt to keep residents from going out in the lethal heat.

Saeed Mangnejo, senior provincial health official, told the Irish Independent newspaper that he expects the death toll to climb further in the next few days.

The wealthy in the city have been receiving tankers of water but the poor are having to go without fresh, cool water.

“This is how it is. No one cares for common poor man here,” Khadim Ali complained as he fanned his cousin, Shahad Ali, a 40-year-old vegetable vendor who collapsed in the heat.

The situation is further complicated for many Muslim residents as they cannot eat or drink during the daylight hours because of Ramadan.

Meterologists say a sea breeze will likely move into the region through the night bringing cooler temperatures.  A monsoon rain could also reach the city and bring relief.

The city’s electrical grid continues to fail as residents overwhelm the system with air conditioners and fans.

Oklahoma Toddler Swept Away In Storm Related Flood

An Oklahoma toddler was swept out of the arms of his father by flood waters near Ardmore.

“The man and his 2-year-old son were trying to leave Ardmore as a flash flood swept through Wednesday night, likely from the swollen Hickory Creek,” said Hamblin. “The father was unable to hold onto the boy and he was swept away.”

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management said that six inches of rain fell in the Ardmore area in 24 hours and that other parts of the state had more than 10 inches from the remnants of Tropical Depression Bill.

The Oklahoma Highway Patrol shut down parts of Interstate 35 due to flood waters completely covering the highway.  States of emergency were declared in all 77 counties in the state.

Residents north of Dallas, Texas near Grapevile Lake are dealing with flooding even after the rain because of runoff causing rising lake levels.  The lake’s excess drains into Denton Creek and the flooding of that river will cause communities to be cut off because of impassable roads.

“We’ll take measures once we are 100% certain that it’s going there,” Chief Darrell Brown of the Grapevine Fire Department told CNN affiliate KDAF. “We believe it will be in the next 24 to 48 hours, so we are doing everything we can to ensure we give them ample notice to have a way out before we evacuate those apartments.”

The Trinity River is still above flood stage and officials are urging residents not to return to the area until the river returns to its banks.