Hurricanes growing more powerful with warmer waters; Scientists want to add a Category 6

Category-4-Hurricane

Important Takeaways:

  • Category 6 hurricanes would describe storms with wind speeds of at least 192 mph.
  • Such a storm would be a “major disaster” if it made landfall over a populated area.
  • The researchers recommend adding a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which currently ranks powerful tropical storms based on wind speed starting at Category 1 (74 to 95 mph) up to Category 5 (157 mph or higher).
  • The “or higher” for Category 5 storms is where scientists take issue.
  • To remedy this, authors Michael Wehner and James Kossin, propose adding another category. Category 6 would refer to hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of at least 192 mph — about the speed that NASCAR drivers go.
  • A strong hurricane with 192 mph winds — which would qualify as a Category 6 — isn’t unheard of. In fact, since 2013, five storms have reached or surpassed that, including Hurricane Patricia, Typhoon Haiyan, and Typhoon Meranti, the researchers reported.

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Hurricane Lee rapidly strengthening towards Caribbean islands with “life-threatening” conditions expected

Tropical-Storm-Lee1

Important Takeaways:

  • Hurricane Lee was rapidly strengthening on Thursday as it churned towards Caribbean islands with “life-threatening” conditions expected to develop in the coming days.
  • “Rapid intensification is expected to begin later today, and Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday,” NHC reported.
  • Current projections show Hurricane Lee will not make landfall but pass north of the British Virgin Islands, which is still recovering from hurricanes Maria and Irma in September 2017.
  • Lee is the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

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New Storm brewing in the Atlantic: Too early to tell the direction but experts are predicting a powerful storm

Tropical-Storm-Lee

Important Takeaways:

  • Hurricane Lee forecast: Maps show where and when ‘extremely dangerous’ new storm is set to unleash devastation
  • Tropical Storm Lee is expected to turn into an ‘extremely dangerous’ hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean by this weekend.
  • Lee could become a major category 3 or stronger storm by Friday as it approaches the Caribbean, forecasters said.
  • Last night, the storm was located some 1,230 miles east of the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles, which include the Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, Antigua and Barbuda.
  • But by Sunday evening, its winds could reach winds of 150 mph, the center added.
  • It was forecast to strengthen into an ‘extremely dangerous’ hurricane by Friday as it moves over very warm waters and passes just northeast of the Caribbean region, the center said.
  • Preliminary forecasts are not predicting any landfall, although the center warned that ‘it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward Islands.’
  • Lee is the twelfth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

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August had no named storms first time in 25 years and only the third time since the satellite era

Revelation 16:9 “They were scorched by the fierce heat, and they cursed the name of God who had power over these plagues. They did not repent and give him glory.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Zero named storms in Atlantic basin during August for 1st time in 25 years
  • Since the satellite era began in 1960, there have now been only three years — 1961, 1997 and 2022 — that there were no named systems during August.
  • According to AccuWeather forecasters, atmospheric conditions were too hostile to support tropical development across the basin during August.
  • Since there have only been three short-lived tropical storms, Alex, Bonnie and Colin, earlier this season, this season’s ACE was at a mere 2.8 by the time the calendar switched to September. But, almost as if right on cue, Tropical Storm Danielle formed in the north-central Atlantic on Sept. 1.

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Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, is barreling toward Florida

Matt 24:7 Then he said to them: “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.

Important Takeaways:

  • Florida faces flash, urban flooding as Hurricane Agatha remnants threaten to become Tropical Storm Alex
  • The Hurricane Center warns that “considerable flash and urban flood is possible.”
  • A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

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National Hurricane Center could release tropical storm watches and warnings later today for Florida

Matt 24:7 Then he said to them: “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.

Important Takeaways:

  • The disturbance, which is the remnants of the Pacific Ocean’s Hurricane Agatha, has an 80% chance of reforming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two to five days
  • May become Tropical Storm Alex and become the first named system of the Atlantic season
  • On Monday, Hurricane Agatha made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded to come ashore in May during the eastern Pacific hurricane season, ripping off roofs and washing out roads before fading Tuesday in southern Mexico.

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Today marks the first official day of hurricane season; new risks to a power grid already on edge

Matt 24:7 Then he said to them: “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven

Important Takeaways:

  • Americans are at a far greater risk of a compromised power grid compounded by weather-related events such as hurricanes.
  • The nation’s growing population needs more energy
  • Refusal to unleash American energy potential as demand rises among homeowners electrifying their homes even more with new gadgets every year, is “a recipe for disaster.”

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Hurricane Ida hits Cuba’s Isle of Youth; U.S. Gulf Coast braces for hit

By Maria Caspani

(Reuters) – Hurricane Ida barreled into Cuba’s Isle of Youth on Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said, and the U.S. Gulf Coast braced for a direct hit this weekend as the storm churned toward the region.

Ida reached hurricane status much more quickly than forecasters had expected. New Orleans city officials ordered residents to evacuate areas outside the levee system, with a voluntary evacuation for the rest of the parish.

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency on Thursday and said on Friday he had sent a request to President Joe Biden for a “pre-landfall” federal declaration of emergency.

“Unfortunately, Louisiana is forecast to get a direct, strong hit from Tropical Storm #Ida, which is compounded by our current fourth surge of COVID-19. This is an incredibly challenging time for our state,” Edwards wrote on Twitter.

Ida smashed into the Isle of Youth packing maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km per hour), meteorologists said.

The storm was expected to keep gaining strength and speed over the warm Gulf waters, endangering the coast lines of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, forecasters said. Ida was expected to make landfall along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast on Sunday.

Officials in U.S. coastal areas preparing for the storm urged residents to move boats out of harbors and encouraged early evacuations.

Officials in Louisiana’s Lafourche Parish said they would enact a voluntary evacuation, especially for people in low-lying areas, mobile homes and RVs. Hurricane force winds of about 110 mph with gusts of 130 mph could hit the state, forecasters said.

“By Saturday evening, everyone should be in the location where they intend to ride out the storm,” Edwards said on Thursday.

Cuba’s meteorology institute said Ida would cause storm surges as far east as Havana. The governor of the Isle of Youth Adian Morera said an evacuation center was ready to receive families in the main town of Nueva Gerona, and sea vessels had already been secured along the coast.

Jamaica was flooded by heavy rains and there were landslides after the passage of the storm. Many roads were impassable and forcing some residents to abandon their homes.

(Reporting by Rich McKay in Atlanta, Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru, Nelson Acosta in Cuba and Kate Chappell in Jamaica; Writing by Maria Caspani; Editing by Jason Neely, Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

Death toll rises as 7-year-old found in ruins of Florida condo collapse

By Katanga Johnson and Francisco Alvarado

SURFSIDE, Fla. (Reuters) -The death toll from last week’s condominium collapse in Florida rose on Friday to 20 after search-and-rescue crews found two more bodies, including the 7-year-old daughter of a Miami firefighter, officials said.

The grim, painstaking search for victims in the rubble, which was suspended for most of Thursday over safety concerns, proceeded on Friday with greater caution and a watchful eye on a hurricane that could strike Florida within days.

There are 128 people still missing and feared buried beneath tons of pulverized concrete, twisted metal and splintered lumber as the search stretched into its ninth day.

The number of people unaccounted for dropped by 17 from Thursday’s figure. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava told a news briefing that the totals were fluid, in part because investigators sometimes learned of additional family members when determining whether missing residents were safe.

The young girl was the third child to be recovered from the collapse site in the oceanfront town of Surfside, next to Miami Beach.

Levine Cava said the discovery was especially difficult for rescuers, who have mounted an unprecedented around-the-clock effort to search for survivors even as the odds have grown longer with each passing day.

“Every victim we remove is very difficult,” said Miami-Dade County Fire Chief Alan Cominsky. “Last night was even more, when we were removing a fellow firefighter’s daughter. As firefighters, we do what we do – it’s kind of a calling. But it still takes a toll.”

No one has been pulled alive from the debris since the initial hours after the 12-floor Champlain Towers South condo partially caved in on itself early on June 24 as residents slept.

Authorities had halted the rescue and recovery effort early Thursday after they detected movement that raised concerns a section of the high-rise tower still standing might topple onto search crews in the debris field.

But the operation was restarted about 15 hours later when it was deemed safe, though with a new set of precautions in place, Cominsky told reporters Thursday evening.

Under the new search plan, teams would confine their work for now to just three of nine grids demarcated in the ruins of the 12-floor Champlain Towers South condo, Cominsky said.

At some point, the remaining part of the building will be demolished, but Levine Cava said on Friday that it would “take some time” before that occurs.

Authorities were eager to make as much progress as possible before the expected arrival of Elsa, which strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2021 season on Friday as it threatened the Caribbean.

The storm could be near South Florida by Monday or Tuesday, National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Molleda told reporters, with tropical storm-force winds arriving as early as Sunday. But he warned that Elsa’s forecasted path remains uncertain.

The renewed search effort began shortly after a visit to the scene on Thursday by U.S. President Joe Biden, who spent about three hours consoling families of the dead and missing.

Investigators have not determined what caused the 40-year-old condo complex to crumble into a heap in one of the deadliest building collapses in U.S. history.

But a 2018 engineering report prepared by an engineering firm ahead of a building safety-recertification process found structural deficiencies in the condo complex that are now the focus of various inquiries, including a grand jury examination.

USA Today, citing a document the newspaper obtained from a family member of a missing victim, reported late on Thursday that a 2020 document from the same firm noted “curious results” after testing the depth of the concrete slab below the pool. But the document did not specify what that meant, the newspaper reported.

The firm also documented severe deterioration in the pool area and expressed concern that repairs could threaten the stability of nearby areas, according to USA Today.

As recently as last April, the condo association president warned residents in a letter that major concrete damage identified by the engineer around the base of the building had grown “significantly worse.”

Several lawsuits have already been filed on behalf of survivors and victims against the association’s board.

In a statement on Friday, the board – some of whose members remain missing – said it would appoint an “independent receiver … to oversee the legal and claims process.”

The board added that it would continue working with investigators to understand the cause of the tragedy.

(Reporting by Katanga Johnson and Francisco Alvarado in Surfside, Florida; Additional reporting by Brendan O’Brien and Barbara Goldberg; Writing by Joseph Ax and Steve Gorman; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Jonathan Oatis)

Storms that slammed Central America in 2020 just a preview

By Sarah Marsh and Sofia Menchu

HAVANA/GUATEMALA CITY (Reuters) – Villagers in Guatemala’s Mayan hillside hamlet Sanimtaca had been about to harvest their cardamom crops that take three years to grow when waves of floodwater triggered by two tropical storms last month washed them away.

Now they have no way to support themselves or to build back the 25 homes – a third of the village – also destroyed in the flash floods that have yet to subside, said Raul Quib, a volunteer from a neighboring community.

“No one had ever seen flooding like it around here,” the 35-year-old who has been collecting food and clothing donations told Reuters. “The school is flooded, the cemetery is flooded.”

This week brought an official close to the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded, with 30 named storms including 13 hurricanes.

And thanks to climate change, experts warn, Central America will have to brace for stronger storm impacts in the future – as well as higher economic damages, unless they prepare.

The region, which already has some of the highest poverty rates in Latin America, was particularly hard hit by hurricanes this year.

Two of the year’s strongest storms, Eta and Iota, ravaged swathes of Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize in unusually quick succession in November.

Altogether, more than 200 people were killed and more than half a million displaced. Hundreds of thousands are now unsure where their next meals will come from.

In Sanimtaca, villagers were able to flee to higher ground in time to escape the flooding. But elsewhere in the mountainous central Guatemalan region of Alta Verapaz, storm-triggered landslides buried dozens of houses with people inside.

Hurricane Eta alone caused up to $5.5 billion in damage in Central America, the Inter-American Development Bank said, while the impact of Iota has not yet been determined.

So far, only Nicaragua has provided official estimates of damage of both storms, putting it at more than $740 million, around 6.2% of gross domestic product.

“If we don’t manage to contain global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, we can expect an intensification of such natural disasters in the region with increasing costs,” said Luis Miguel Galindo, climate change expert and economics professor at Mexico’s UNAM university.

Currently, the world is on track to surpass 2°C of warming above pre-industrial temperatures.

If temperatures rise 2.5 °C by mid-century, the main costs of climate change could tally 1.5% to 5% of the annual GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean, according to a 2017 United Nations report that Galindo co-authored. It put the cost of adapting below 0.5% of GDP.

SLOWER STORMS, LONGER SEASON

Climate change overall is changing how hurricanes behave, scientists say, by warming up the ocean water through which they draw their power. Winds are blowing stronger. Storms are dropping heavier rains.

“We have more energy embedded in the oceans, and 90% from climate change,” said Belizean meteorologist Carlos Fuller, the lead climate change negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States.

And hurricanes are sometimes moving more slowly, stalling for longer on land or traveling farther before breaking up, recent research has shown.

That can mean even more rainfall, wind and destruction for communities in a storm’s path. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey turned Houston’s highways into tidal rivers after stalling for four days near or over the Texas coast. Scientists say Eta and Sally behaved this way, too, hence the unusual flooding in Sanimtaca.

“The evidence is building that there is a human fingerprint on this behavior,” said Jim Kossin, climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In a study published in June 2018 in the journal Nature, Kossin found that hurricane speeds had decreased worldwide by about 10% between 1949 and 2016.

This year’s storm count included six major hurricanes, twice the long-term average, said meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, who researches hurricanes at Colorado State University.

The year also saw nine storms that rapidly intensified, he said. Iota for example spun from a 70 mile-per-hour (113 km-per-hour) tropical storm to a 160-mph (257-kph) Category 5 hurricane in 36 hours. The only other years that saw so many such storms were 1995 and 2010.

That can be “a problem from the warning, preparation perspective,” Klotzbach said. “It is hard to prepare if it’s a tropical storm, and then a day later a Category 4 hurricane.”

More storms could also hit outside of the traditional hurricane season going forwards as ocean waters get warmer sooner, said Susan Lozier, an oceanographer and dean at the Georgia Institute of Technology’s College of Sciences. This year, a record-tying two tropical storms were swirling over the Atlantic in May, before the season’s June 1 start.

But it is still unclear if climate change is influencing the number of storms per year and played a role in the record 30 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean this season given natural variability. The number of hurricanes and major hurricanes for the Northern Hemisphere was near average due to a quieter Pacific.

BOLSTERING RESILIENCE

Communities devastated by a hurricane need to find ways to reduce the risk of damages should another hurricane hit, said World Bank regional sustainable development expert Anna Wellenstein.

Natural hazards “become disasters when we build in the wrong place or in the wrong way,” she said. “Countries need more than a few years to really increase their resilience. This is an effort of decades.”

Moving populations away from coastlines vulnerable to floods and storm surges or hillsides that see landslides could help prevent deaths, some experts suggest. Storm predictions and warning systems could be improved. And vulnerable crops can be swapped out for hardier species.

“Rice can survive (rain) water because it grows in water,” said Fuller, the meteorologist in Belize. “So maybe we need to shift to that sort of grain instead of maize for example which will fall.”

A dollar invested in more resilient infrastructure brings four dollars in economic benefits, said Wellenstein.

But many Central American and Caribbean countries, already confronted with poverty and debt, have struggled to prioritize this among so many other pressing needs.

“They don’t have the resources,” said Galindo. “And the pandemic is further reducing revenue and increasing expenses.”

Guatemala’s President Alejandro Giammattei said last month Central America had been the worst affected region in the world by climate change and it would need help from them to stave off mass migration.

Quib, who volunteered to help Sanimtaca, said he expected most of the youth of the village to emigrate to Canada where they could lead a better life.

“If they were already doing it before this happened, they will do so even more now,” he said.

(Reporting by Sarah Marsh in Havana and Sofia Menchu in Guatemala City; Additional Reporting by Laura Gottesdiener in Monterrey, Mexico; Editing by Katy Daigle and Lisa Shumaker)