Factbox: Five potential flashpoints between Russia and Ukraine

MOSCOW/KYIV (Reuters) – A Russian troop build-up near Ukraine has led to fears that a war could break out between the former Soviet neighbors. Here are some potential flashpoints.

SEA OF AZOV

Confrontation has periodically flared up in the Sea of Azov, flanked by the Ukrainian and Russian coastlines, since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The sea flows into the Black Sea via the Kerch Strait that Russia now de facto controls. The waters contain two large Ukrainian ports – Mariupol and Berdyansk, where Kyiv is building a naval base. Kyiv says Moscow seeks de facto control of the entire sea and impedes shipping.

Last week Russia accused Ukraine of a dangerous provocation after a Ukrainian naval boat sailed towards the Kerch Strait and did not react to a Russian request to change course. Ukraine said the vessel was an unarmed search and rescue ship and called the complaints disinformation. In 2018, Russia seized two small Ukrainian gunboats and one tugboat and their combined crew of 24 off Crimea. It accused them of illegally entering Russian waters as they headed from the Black Sea via the Kerch Strait.

CRIMEA

Russia has heavily reinforced Crimea with troops and military hardware since the annexation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he will do all he can to return the peninsula. The Kremlin says it views his comments as a direct threat. Most of the world recognizes Crimea and its surrounding waters as Ukrainian. This summer a British warship exercised what London said were internationally recognized freedom of navigation rules in Ukrainian territorial waters near Crimea. Moscow said the ship crossed into Russian waters and that it fired warning shots and dropped bombs in the path of the vessel.

NORTH CRIMEAN CANAL

The Soviet-era canal that runs for more than 400 km (250 miles) was built in 1961-71 to channel water from the Dnieper river in Ukraine to arid areas of Ukraine’s Kherson region and Crimea. Ukrainian military analysts have said it could be used as a pretext for a Russian military offensive in southern Ukraine.

Following the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine cut off fresh water supply along the canal that had supplied 85% of the peninsula’s needs. Moscow appealed this year to the European Court of Human Rights in part over what it said was Ukraine’s blocking of water supplies. The complaint was dismissed. In July this year, Ukraine’s parliament adopted legislation banning water supplies to “occupied” territories. Kyiv says it cannot supply water because most of it would be used by the Russian army.

Ukraine’s defense minister has said Kyiv would be prepared to supply water to the population in the form of humanitarian aid delivered by the Red Cross if needed, but not via the canal.

DONBASS

Ukraine says some 14,000 people have been killed in fighting between government forces and Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine since 2014. As the West has raised fears over a Russian troop buildup, Moscow has accused Ukraine of building up its own troops and compared the tensions to the run-up to a 2008 war in which Russian forces crushed those of neighboring Georgia.

BELARUS-UKRAINE BORDER

Ties between Ukraine and Belarus have worsened since last year, when Moscow helped Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko weather mass street protests and Lukashenko in turn became more vocal in his support for Moscow against Ukraine. He has since said Crimea is legally Russian territory, a U-turn on his previous stance.

Last month, Ukraine said it should set aside money to build a more than 2,500 km fence on its borders with Belarus. Minsk has since accused a Ukrainian Mi-8 military helicopter of flouting its border during maneuvers and flying 1 km (0.6 miles) into its territory. Belarus has announced plans to hold joint military exercises with Russia on the Ukrainian border.

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth and Natalia Zinets; editing by Mark Trevelyan and Angus MacSwan)

Russia demands rescinding of NATO promise to Ukraine and Georgia

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia demanded on Friday that NATO rescind a 2008 commitment to Ukraine and Georgia that they would one day become members and said the alliance should promise not to deploy weapons in countries bordering Russia that could threaten its security.

The demands were spelt out by the Russian foreign ministry in its fullest statement yet on the security guarantees that President Vladimir Putin says he wants to obtain from the United States and its allies.

“In the fundamental interests of European security, it is necessary to formally disavow the decision of the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit that ‘Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members’,” the ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine is at the center of a crisis in East-West relations as it accuses Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops in preparation for a possible large-scale military offensive.

Russia denies planning any attack but accuses Ukraine and the United States of destabilizing behavior, and has said it needs security guarantees for its own protection.

The ministry statement followed a video call between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden this week that was dominated by discussion of Ukraine.

The foreign ministry said Moscow was proposing a series of steps to reduce tensions, including to agree safe distances between Russian and NATO warships and planes, especially in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Moscow called for the renewing of a regular defense dialogue with the United States and NATO and urged Washington to join a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range nuclear forces in Europe.

(Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Frances Kerry)

Russia to West: offer us guarantees or risk unravelling security

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia on Friday warned of the danger of a major confrontation with the West unless the United States and its allies gave serious thought to security guarantees for Moscow, and it also raised the prospect of a European missile crisis.

The comments by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov at a news briefing in Moscow came amid soaring tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine and a Russian troop build-up near its borders.

In a top-level video call to defuse the tensions on Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin asked U.S. President Joe Biden for security guarantees for Russia that would halt NATO’s eastward expansion.

Russia has said it is waiting to see where the idea leads, though Ryabkov said it would be “naive” to expect the guarantees to be obtained. Bilateral ties are at their lowest point since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

“If our opponents on the other side – above all the United States but also other countries, its allies, so-called like-minded countries – if they refuse, and try and torpedo this, they will inevitably get a further worsening of their own security situation,” Ryabkov said.

“Not to agree would mean to move closer towards a big confrontation,” he said.

He also urged the West to seriously consider a long-standing proposal to impose a moratorium on the deployment of short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe that were banned under a missile pact that collapsed under then-U.S. President Donald Trump.

Ryabkov criticized the United States and its NATO allies for expanding their military capabilities in Eastern Europe.

“We need before it’s too late to avoid a new missile crisis in Europe. The appearance of short- and medium-range weapons on these territories is a direct route to escalating confrontation,” he said.

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth and Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Paul Simao)

Britain warns Putin: don’t invade Ukraine

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Britain’s defense minister called on President Vladimir Putin on Thursday to pull back from the brink over Ukraine and warned that Russia would face long-term severe consequences if its forces invaded its neighbor.

“Any action by Russia to threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine would not only have severe consequences – they’d have long lasting consequences for Russia,” Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said.

Wallace called on Kremlin chief Putin to step back from any such moves which he said could trigger a deadly civil war on the edge of Europe.

“I would just urge him to think again: I don’t think Russia wants those consequences,” Wallace said. “I don’t want to see a civil war or a war at the edge of Europe.”

U.S. intelligence assesses that Russia could be planning a multi-front offensive on Ukraine as early as next year, involving up to 175,000 troops.

The Kremlin denies it plans to invade and says the West is gripped by Russophobia. Moscow says the expansion of NATO threatens Russia and has contravened assurances given to it as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Wallace said that Russian talk of NATO encirclement was nonsense.

“Only 6% of the Russian land border is bordered by NATO countries – that’s hardly being surrounded by NATO,” Wallace said.

“NATO is a defensive alliance – it is in our articles of establishment. It is only there to defend itself and its members if it were to be attacked.”

Wallace said it was up to sovereign states and NATO members if they joined NATO – not Russia.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Kate Holton)

Russia keeps tensions high over Ukraine while waiting for next Biden move

By Tom Balmforth and Andrey Ostroukh

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia kept up a barrage of hostile rhetoric towards Ukraine on Thursday and compared the crisis there to the most dangerous moment of the Cold War as it waited for U.S. President Joe Biden to invite it to possible talks with NATO countries.

The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of moving heavy artillery towards the front line of fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the former Soviet republic and failing to engage in a peace process.

“Negotiations on a peaceful settlement have practically hit a dead end,” ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters, referring to the seven-year conflict between Ukrainian and separatist forces in the eastern Donbass region.

The ministry’s Twitter feed, quoting Zakharova, said: “With the support of NATO countries pumping the country with weapons, Kyiv is building up its contingent on the line of contact in Donbass.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov agreed with a reporter who suggested East-West tensions over Ukraine could turn into a re-run of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the United States and the Soviet Union stood on the brink of nuclear war.

“You know, it really could come to that,” Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. “If things continue as they are, it is entirely possible by the logic of events to suddenly wake up and see yourself in something similar.”

The comments came two days after a video call between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin that was intended to help defuse the crisis over Ukraine.

They signaled that Moscow has an interest in keeping tensions high while waiting for the next move from Biden, who has said he plans to hold follow-up talks involving Russia and NATO countries.

Ukraine, which seeks to join NATO, says it fears an invasion by tens of thousands of Russian troops gathered near its border. Moscow says its posture is purely defensive.

“FIGHTING BY OURSELVES”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv expects to be supported by Western military allies even if the United States does not send troops there, an action that Biden has ruled out.

“We will be fighting this war by ourselves,” Kuleba told investors in London. “We know how to fight. We do not need foreign troops fighting for us. But we will appreciate anything that can strengthen our army in terms of military supplies.”

Ukraine’s military accused the Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country of six new violations of a broken-down 2020 ceasefire on Thursday, three of them involving weapons banned under earlier peace deals that Moscow and Kyiv say they are trying to revive.

Interfax quoted a Ukrainian official as saying Kyiv was proposing a humanitarian exchange of up to 60 prisoners by New Year.

In Tuesday’s video call, Biden voiced concern about Russia’s military build-up and told Putin that Moscow would face serious economic consequences if it invaded.

Putin has said talk of an invasion is “provocative” and accused Ukraine and NATO of fanning tensions.

Biden said the next day he hoped for an announcement by Friday of high-level meetings with Russia and major NATO allies to discuss Moscow’s concerns and the possibility of “bringing down the temperature along the eastern front.”

Russia’s Ryabkov described this as a “unilateral” statement, implying the U.S. side had not discussed it with Moscow.

Asked if Russia would object to the participation of other NATO members, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “We cannot say, because there is no understanding of how all this will be arranged.”

(Additional reporting by Maria Kiselyova, Gabrielle Tetrault-Farber, Natalia Zinets, Matthias Williams, Elizabeth Howcroft and Marc Jones; writing by Mark Trevelyan; editing by Andrew Heavens)

Biden says putting U.S. troops on ground in Ukraine is ‘not on the table’

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday putting American troops on the ground in Ukraine to deter a potential Russian invasion was “not on the table” and he hoped to announce a meeting with Russia and other NATO countries by Friday.

Speaking to reporters as he left the White House, Biden said he had made it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his nearly two-hour virtual meeting on Tuesday that there would be economic consequences like none before if Russia invades Ukraine, and he is confident Putin got the message.

Biden said he hoped that by Friday there would be an announcement of high-level meetings with Russia and at least four major NATO allies to “discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large” and whether or not accommodations could be worked out as it related to “bringing down the temperature along the eastern front.”

Biden said the United States had a moral and legal obligation to defend NATO allies if they are attacked, but that obligation did not extend to Ukraine.

“That is not on the table,” Biden said when asked if U.S. troops would be used to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Sonya Hepinstall)

U.S. has ‘understanding’ with Germany to shut Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine -congressional aide

By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. officials have told members of Congress they have an understanding with Germany about shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine, a senior congressional aide told Reuters on Tuesday.

The aide said U.S. officials told Congress they have been in contact with their German counterparts in the event of an invasion, given the massing of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.

U.S. officials say they have received assurances from Germany the pipeline would be turned off, the aide said. But it was unclear if the two sides had agreed on a definition of invasion, the aide said.

A European diplomat told Reuters U.S. officials had made it clear to allies that they would act to sanction the pipeline in the event of an invasion, which could make any German action a moot point.

“If the U.S. imposes (additional) sanctions, it’s an academic point, because no one will be able to do business with Nord Stream 2 for fear of running afoul of U.S. sanctions.”

German officials told reporters on Tuesday that there was still a process to complete before the pipeline would even start operations.

President Joe Biden has long opposed the Russian-German pipeline. The U.S. State Department has sanctioned Russian entities related to it, but not the company behind it, as it has tried to rebuild ties with Germany that deteriorated under Donald Trump’s administration.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Writing by Doina Chiacu; Editing by Tim Ahmann, Heather Timmons and Mark Heinrich)

U.S. Congress includes $300 million for Ukraine, addresses China in massive defense bill

By Patricia Zengerle

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. lawmakers included efforts to push back against Russia and China in a massive annual defense bill released on Tuesday, proposing $300 million for Ukraine’s military and a statement of support for the defense of Taiwan.

But they omitted a few measures that had had strong support from some members of Congress, including a proposal to impose mandatory sanctions over the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and a proposal to subject women to the military draft.

The fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, authorizes $770 billion in military spending, including a 2.7% pay increase for the troops, and authorization for a range of defense programs as well as strategies for dealing with geopolitical threats.

The NDAA normally passes with strong bipartisan support. It is closely watched by a broad swath of industry and other interests because of its wide scope and because it is one of the only major pieces of legislation that becomes law every year.

This year’s bill was released shortly after U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held two hours of virtual talks on Ukraine and other disputes.

The 2022 NDAA includes $300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides support to Ukraine’s armed forces, includes $4 billion for the European Defense Initiative and proposes $150 million for Baltic security cooperation.

It does not include a provision that would force Biden to impose sanctions over the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline to bring Russian gas directly to Germany. The measure’s supporters argue that the pipeline would be harmful to European allies.

Lawmakers also omitted an amendment that would have banned Americans from purchasing Russian sovereign debt.

Biden’s fellow Democrats control both the House of Representatives and Senate, and the White House had said administration officials support sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, but not provisions that could threaten trans-Atlantic ties.

EYES ON CHINA

On China, the bill includes $7.1 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative and a statement of congressional support for the defense of Taiwan, as well as a ban on the Department of Defense procuring products produced with forced labor from China’s Xinjiang region.

The United States has labeled China’s treatment of its Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang as genocide, and lawmakers have been pushing a ban on imports of products that may have been made with forced labor from Uyghurs. China dismisses the genocide charge as part of slanderous assertions about conditions in Xinjiang.

The compromise text omits a proposal to subject women to the military draft that was included in earlier versions. The proposal faced stiff opposition from socially conservative lawmakers that threatened to block the entire NDAA.

The compromise bill includes a significant overhaul of the military justice system to take decisions on whether to prosecute cases of rape, sexual assault and some other major crimes out of the hands of military commanders.

The change is the result of a years-long push, led by Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, in response to the thousands of cases of sexual assault and related crimes among service members every year, many of which are never prosecuted.

To become law for the 61st straight year, the NDAA must pass the House and Senate and be signed into law by Biden.

(Reporting by Patricia Zengerle; Editing by Mark Potter, William Maclean)

 

Ukraine shows off U.S. military hardware, vows to fight off Russia

By Natalia Zinets and Matthias Williams

KYIV (Reuters) – Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday said his armed forces were capable of fighting off any Russian attack, as the country marked its national army day with a display of U.S. armored vehicles and patrol boats.

U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged his “unwavering support” to Ukraine in its standoff with Moscow and will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to defuse the crisis. Zelenskiy is set to speak to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday.

Ukraine has accused Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops near its border in preparation for a possible large-scale military offensive, raising the prospect of open war between the two neighbors.

“The servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to fulfil their most important mission – to defend the freedom and sovereignty of the state from the Russian aggressor,” Zelenskiy said in a statement.

“The Ukrainian army … is confident in its strength and able to thwart any conquest plans of the enemy,” he said.

Russia has dismissed talk of a new assault on Ukraine as false and inflammatory but told the West not to cross its “red lines” and to halt the eastward expansion of the NATO alliance.

NATO MEMBERSHIP

Decked out in khaki armor and helmet, Zelenskiy flew east to shake hands with soldiers at the frontline in the Donetsk region, where Ukraine’s army has fought Russian-backed forces in a conflict that Kyiv says has killed 14,000 people since 2014.

He then flew to Kharkiv, a city near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia and a traditional center for weapons manufacturing, to mark a delivery of tanks, armored personal carriers and armored vehicles made in the city’s factories.

Standing in front of rows of soldiers, tanks and planes on the city’s main square on Monday evening, Zelenskiy trumpeted the ways in which Ukraine’s military had equipped itself with the help of NATO allies.

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that now aspires to join the European Union and NATO, has received Javelin anti-tank missiles from the United States, sophisticated drones from Turkey and signed a deal with Britain to build ships and new naval bases on Ukraine’s southern coast.

Several cities across Ukraine are marking the 30th anniversary of the creation of an independent military after winning independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

“Today, together with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I am here in Kharkiv on Freedom Square,” Zelenskiy said in an address.

“This is significant, because freedom for us is the greatest value,” he said, adding: “it is a symbol of our state, all of Ukraine, which was defended from Russia’s aggression in 2014 by our soldiers and continues to be defended by them today.”

Kyiv, Lviv and the southern port city of Odessa displayed U.S.-made Humvees. In Odessa, there was also a ceremony to hand over two recently delivered U.S. Coast Guard patrol boats intended to bolster Ukraine’s navy.

Ukraine has urged NATO to accelerate its entry into the military alliance and said Moscow had no right to veto such a move. NATO’s leadership has been supportive but said Ukraine must carry out defense reforms and tackle corruption first.

(Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Paul Simao)

India, Russia strike trade, arms deals during Putin visit

By Alasdair Pal and Neha Arora

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Russia and India signed a flurry of trade and arms deals during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, including one that will see India produce more than 600,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles.

Putin travelled to India with Russia’s defense and foreign ministers in a visit that saw the two countries reinforce their ties with a military and technical cooperation pact until 2031 and a pledge to boost annual trade to $30 billion by 2025.

The Russian president is visiting India amid increasingly strained relations between Russia and the United States, also a key Indian ally, which has expressed reservations about the growing military cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.

A joint statement published after the talks said Russia and India had “reiterated their intention to strengthen defense cooperation, including in the joint development of production of military equipment.”

In addition to the deal for India to produce AK-203 assault rifles, Russia said it was interested in continuing to provide S-400 air defense missile systems.

India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said the two countries had signed 28 investment pacts, including deals on steel, shipbuilding, coal and energy. He added that a 2018 contract for the S-400 missile systems was currently being implemented.

“Supplies have begun this month, and will continue to happen,” he said, referring to the S-400.

The deal with Moscow puts India at risk of sanctions from the United States under a 2017 U.S. law aimed at deterring countries from buying Russian military hardware.

Russian oil company Rosneft said it signed a contract with Indian Oil to supply up to 2 million tonnes of oil to India by the end of 2022.

The countries also signed a memorandum of understanding for Russia to send an uninterrupted supply of coal to India to support its steel production, among other deals.

Putin and Modi also discussed the situation in Afghanistan, voicing their commitment to ensure that the country will never become a safe haven for international terrorism.

(Reporting by Alasdair Pal in New Delhi and Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber in Moscow; Editing by Alex Richardson and Paul Simao)