Important Takeaways:
- Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has flatly stated that any long-range missile strikes carried out by Ukraine against the territory of Russia will constitute an act of war against the Russian Federation by NATO.
- He warns that if Ukraine is empowered to strike Russia with long-range missiles supplied by NATO, the alliance would be at war with his country:
- Putin notes that Ukrainian drone attacks have already taken place within Russia, most recently in Moscow. However, “When it comes to using high-precision long-range Western-made weapons, it’s a completely different story.”
- “The Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern long-range precision systems of Western manufacture. It cannot do this. It can only do so using intelligence from satellites, which Ukraine does not have. This is data from [European Union] satellites, or from the United States, in general from NATO,” he said.
- Putin believes only NATO servicemen can enter flight assignments for the missile systems, arguing the real question is whether NATO wants to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine or not.
- Putin’s ominous words come after Biden-Harris Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hinted that Ukraine may get the green light to use long-range missiles against Russia earlier this week.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Kremlin has issued yet more warnings following reports that the Biden administration could soon greenlight long-range attacks by Kiev forces on Russian territory using US-supplied arms.
- Both the UK and Canada are on board, we reported earlier, and British Prime Minister Ken Starmer is visiting Washington where he’s directly lobbying Biden to jump on board and grant Zelensky’s urgent request to lift all restrictions on Western weaponry.
- However, The New York Times suggests that saner minds are prevailing at this point. “President Biden’s deliberations with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain about whether to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with long-range Western weapons were fresh evidence that the president remains deeply fearful of setting off a dangerous, wider conflict,” the publication writes.
- Let’s hope this is the case, given this is arguably the most dangerous moment and decision-point of the war to date.
- Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov on Friday added to prior Kremlin warnings, telling Rossiya 24 channel that he fears American leadership and the people are under “illusion”.
- He said they seem to think that “if there is a conflict, it will not spread to the territory of the United States of America.”
- Antonov continued by stressing that Americans can’t hide from nuclear war if this unthinkable happens. “I am constantly trying to convey to them one thesis that the Americans will not be able to sit it out behind the waters of this ocean. This war will affect everyone, so we constantly say – do not play with this rhetoric,” Antonov stated according to state media translation.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia’s move to expel British diplomats ratchets up tensions between Moscow and London, hours before Starmer lands in Washington to advance talks on getting the green light from U.S. President Joe Biden for Kyiv to use Britain’s Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of more than 250 km (155 miles), inside Russia.
- President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the West would be directly fighting with Russia if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the conflict.
- The Kremlin said on Friday that Putin had delivered what it described as a clear and unambiguous message to the West which it was sure had been heard.
- Washington and London see Iran’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine, announced by Washington this week, as a dramatic escalation and it had sped up talks on Ukraine’s long-range missile use, three Western sources said. Russia and Iran have denied any such deliveries.
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the activities of the British embassy in Moscow had gone well beyond the Vienna diplomatic conventions.
- “More importantly, it is not just a question of formality and non-compliance with declared activities, but of subversive actions aimed at damaging our people,” Zakharova said on Telegram.
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Important Takeaways:
- Blinken stated “I can tell you that as we go forward, we will do exactly what we have already done, which is we will adjust, we’ll adapt as necessary – including with regard to the means that are at Ukraine’s disposal.”
- The question of permission for Ukraine to use long-range weapons inside of Russia is also likely to be discussed at a meeting between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden in Washington on Friday.
- So far, the US has only given Kiev permission to use its munitions to strike inside Russian territory if the targets are just across the border from the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ruben Brekelmans, the defense minister of The Netherlands, just gave Zelensky the approval to use their weapons to wage war on Russia and even attack Moscow. Brekelmans claimed that international law “is not limited by distance.” He added, “The right to self-defense does not end 100 kilometers from the border.” He has now placed The Netherlands in the crosshairs, being the first to authorize Ukraine to start killing civilians in Russia.
- As I have said, my fear is that they know what they are doing, and Putin has shown tremendous restraint. They want him to be overthrown by Russian Neocons, and they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.
- Brekelmans declared: “We have not placed any operational restrictions on Ukraine regarding distance.”
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Important Takeaways:
- China is communist North Korea’s closest ally, but has refrained from major displays of support towards the Kim regime in the past year, particularly after Pyongyang published an excoriating screed against Beijing in May for backing a statement vaguely supporting the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. North Korean diplomacy has since trended towards Russia, signing a mutual defense treaty with Moscow in July during strongman Vladimir Putin’s first visit to North Korea in decades.
- China and North Korea nonetheless rely on each other significantly for ideological and economic support. Xi’s message hoping to “strengthen communication” with Kim arrives as North Korea escalates belligerent behavior against South Korea, flooding the country with a wave of trash-filled balloons over the weekend. China, in turn, faces growing economic challenges and resistance to its geopolitical agenda from the West.
- The South Korean news agency Yonhap described Beijing and Pyongyang as “relatively estranged” in the context of the founding anniversary message and the upcoming anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. South Korean sources have reportedly not seen any indication that the two countries will plan any “grand celebrations” together to mark the occasion.
- While still close allies, North Korea and China have kept a diplomatic distance this year compared to those prior, which appeared to expand following China participating in a summit in Seoul alongside the governments of that country and Japan in May. The trilateral summit, the ninth of its kind in modern history, united the conservative governments of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio with the Communist Party and resulted in a joint statement that outraged North Korea.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine unleashed more than 140 drones on Russia overnight, officials said Tuesday, killing a woman near Moscow, grounding flights and setting off air defenses in several parts of the country.
- Russia’s ministry of defense said in a statement it had shot down 144 Ukrainian drones overnight – ’72 UAVs over Bryansk region, 20 over Moscow region, 14 over Kursk region, 13 over Tula region’, and 25 more over five other parts of the country.
- Moscow regional governor Andrey Vorobyov said in a Telegram post that a 46-year-old woman had been killed and several people wounded when a UAV damaged at least two high-rise apartment building in the Ramenskoye district of Moscow region, some 30 miles southeast of the Kremlin.
- The latest wave of drones came just a week after Ukraine suffered one of its darkest days after two ballistic missiles killed at least 51 people and injured 219 on September 3.
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Important Takeaways:
- The story of the transfer of Iranian missiles to Russia is not just about the missiles; it is about the larger symbol.
- “We are aware of the credible information provided by allies on the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia,” EU spokesman Peter Stano said, according to reports. The reports claim Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Russia has been fighting a war against Ukraine for more than two years. The Iranian ties with Russia are not new; the countries have worked together for decades on various issues, and Iran increasingly wants to partner with Russia on numerous issues.
- Iran’s Mehr News also reported on the claims. Iran’s foreign ministry has denied the claims.
- The CNN report noted that it is not clear when the missiles were delivered. “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told allies at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany on Friday that Ukraine urgently needed more air defense systems,” CNN noted.
- Reports that Turkey will attend an upcoming Arab League meeting and that Turkey and the Syrian regime could reconcile are also part of the story. Syria’s regime is a key ally of Moscow. Iran uses Syria to threaten Israel. Iran traffics weapons via Syria to Lebanon and also bases weapons in Syria.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Chinese Defense Ministry on Monday said it would hold joint military drills with Russia sending naval and air forces for a maritime patrol of “relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean” in September.
- The move underscores the progressive alignment of the two countries, both militarily and economically, in opposition to the Western-led liberal democratic order.
- What do both countries have to gain?
- Russia is seeking China’s help in strengthening its position as a Pacific power, while Moscow has supported China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
- Increasingly, this has come to include the 180-kilometer (110-mile) wide Taiwan Strait dividing mainland China from the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan. Beijing considers the island part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force if necessary.
- Moscow and Beijing have increased military and economic cooperation in recent years, each opposing “Western hegemony” — particularly a perceived US domination of global affairs. In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries declared a “no limits” partnership.
- NATO leaders claim China has become “a decisive enabler” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting Beijing to warn the US-led military bloc against “provoking confrontation.”
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Important Takeaways:
- The United States and nine allied nations on Thursday formally accused the Russian government of masterminding cyberattacks in 2020 on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, among many other targets.
- The countries pinned the attacks, which largely used a type of malware known as “WhisperGate,” on GRU Unit 29155, a Russian military hacking group.
- Hacking efforts as part of this campaign began in 2020, and included attacks on Ukrainian groups in January 2022 ahead of Russia’s invasion, along with critical infrastructure organizations in government, transportation, financial, health and other sectors in NATO member states.
- According to the FBI, this hacking activity included more than 14,000 observed instances of scanning networks in more than 20 NATO member states and European nations, along with targeting of groups in Central American and Asian nations.
- The Justice Department accused the group of carrying out attacks, including the probing of an unnamed Maryland-based U.S. government agency between August 2021 and February 2022, and of hacking the transportation infrastructure of an unnamed Central European nation supportive of Ukraine in mid-2022.
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