Tag Archives: War

Prospects for Syrian Peace Talks Bleak

Smoke rises after an airstrike in the rebel held area of old Aleppo

By John Irish and Tom Perry

GENEVA/BEIRUT (Reuters) – Prospects for reviving Syrian peace talks were bleak on Tuesday with the opposition saying the postponement was indefinite with a truce over, and the government ruling out any negotiations about the presidency of Bashar al-Assad.

The collapse of the Geneva talks leaves a diplomatic vacuum that could allow a further escalation of the war that is being fueled by rivalries between foreign powers including oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.

As fighting raged and air strikes on rebel-held areas intensified, the opposition urged foreign states to supply them with the means to defend themselves, a thinly veiled reference to the anti-aircraft weapons long sought by insurgents.

The United States, meanwhile, told Russia that Syria was starting to “fray more rapidly”, signaling concern about its possible fragmentation as the most serious peace-making effort in two years appeared to be falling apart.

The mainstream Western-backed opposition announced a pause on Monday, blaming Assad for violating a ceasefire. Damascus blamed rebels for breaking the cessation of hostilities.

Chief Syrian government negotiator Bashar Ja’afari said his team was pushing for an expanded government as a solution to the war, an idea rejected by the armed opposition which has fought for five years to oust Assad whose fortunes on the battlefield have been boosted by military backing from Iran and Russia.

The Geneva talks aim to end a war that has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world’s worst refugee crisis, allowed for the rise of the Islamic State group and drawn in regional and major powers. Russia’s intervention in the conflict swayed the war in Assad’s favor.

The opposition has blamed Damascus for using the talks to press their advantage militarily to regain territory.

Damascus has accused rebel groups of joining attacks by the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which like the Islamic State group is not covered by the truce.

With fighting reported across much of northwest Syria on Tuesday, both sides were obdurate.

“Our mandate in Geneva stops at forming a national unity government,” Ja’afari told Reuters. “We have no mandate whatsoever either to address the constitutional issue meaning establishing a new constitution or addressing parliamentary elections or addressing the fate of the presidency.

“It’s not the business of anybody in Geneva. It happens when the Syrian people decide,” he said in an interview.

ASSAD IS “DREAMING”

Ahead of leaving Geneva, Riad Hijab, chief coordinator of the main opposition HNC bloc, said there was no chance of returning to talks while the government broke the truce, blocked humanitarian access and ignored the issue of detainees.

Clearly angry, Hijab dismissed any suggestion that Assad could stay in power, saying he was “dreaming.”

Major powers were paralyzed and needed to reevaluate the truce and the humanitarian situation through the International Syrian Support Group that includes the United States, Russia, European states and key regional powers, Hijab said.

As things stood, Hijab said the HNC could not return to formal talks while people were suffering, although they would leave experts in Geneva to discuss certain issues. The Syrian government side is staying on.

U.S. President Barack Obama said he told Russian President Vladimir Putin in their call on Monday that Syria is starting to fray more rapidly and that the war-torn country cannot move forward if the United States and Russia are not in sync.

De Mistura attempted to convene peace talks in January, but these failed before they had even started in earnest largely due to a worsening situation on the ground. The new effort, which began last month, came after the implementation on Feb. 27 of the partial truce brokered by the Washington and Moscow.

But the opposition is adamant that the Damascus government is not serious about moving toward a U.N.-backed political process they say would bring a transitional governing body with full executive powers without Assad.

A U.N. Security Council resolution in December called for the establishment of “credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance”, a new constitution, and free and fair elections within 18 months.

De Mistura said both sides were “not yielding a comma” on their political demands, but said that was normal in a negotiation. He would take stock of progress on Friday.

The opposition was categoric the suspension was indefinite.

“There is no date, the date … is the implementation of matters on the ground, and likewise the correction of the path of negotiations. All the while that does not happen, the time period will remain open,” the opposition’s George Sabra said.

The opposition also had “big complaints” about U.S. policy which he said sought to carry on talks “without us obtaining anything real”, he said. He called on international powers to supply Syrians with the means to defend themselves.

FIGHTING RAGES ACROSS NORTHWEST

“Let’s be realistic. The escalation will start,” said Bashar al-Zoubi, a prominent rebel leader. Ahmed Al-Seoud, the head of another rebel group, said he hoped for more military support from Assad’s foreign enemies.

Syrian forces backed by Russian warplanes launched a counter-attack against rebels in the northwestern province of Latakia, a rebel group and a conflict monitor reported, as violence was reported across much of the northwest on Tuesday.

Targets included towns and villages where a partial truce agreement had brought about a lull in fighting.

Air strikes killed at least five people in the town of Kafr Nubl in the insurgent stronghold of Idlib province, and three others in nearby Maarat al-Numan, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring organization reported.

Rockets fired by insurgents killed three children in nearby Kefraya, a Shi’ite town loyal to the government, it said. State media said the dead were members of one family.

Fighting in Latakia focused on areas where insurgent groups had launched an attack on government forces on Monday, and where battles had often erupted despite the cessation of hostilities.

“The regime is trying to storm the area, with the participation of Russian helicopters and Sukhoi (warplanes),” said Fadi Ahmad, spokesman for the First Coastal rebel group in the area. The Observatory said fighting had raged since morning.

Government air strikes and barrel bombing was reported in northern areas of Homs province that are under rebel control. The use of barrel bombs, or oil drums filled with explosives, has been denied by the Syrian government but widely recorded including by a U.N. commission of inquiry on Syria. The Syrian army could not immediately be reached for comment.

(Reporting by Tom Perry in Beirut, John Irish in Geneva, writing by Peter Millership)

U.S. to send more troops to Iraq

U.S. Defence Secretary Ash Carter speaks at the closing ceremony of a U.S.-Philippine military exercise dubbed "Balikatan" in Quezon City, Metro Manila

By Yeganeh Torbati

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The United States will send more troops to Iraq, potentially putting them closer to the front lines to advise Iraqi forces in the war against Islamic State militants.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter made the announcement on Monday during a visit to Baghdad during which he met U.S. commanders, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and Iraqi Defence Minister Khaled al-Obeidi.

About 200 additional troops will be deployed, raising the number of U.S. troops in Iraq to about 4,100, a senior U.S. Defense official said.

The Pentagon will also provide up to $415 million to Kurdish peshmerga military units.

Carter did not meet Kurdish leaders in person during his visit, but spoke with the president of the Kurdish region, Massoud Barzani, on the telephone.

Monday’s announcement is the move in the past several months by the United States to step up its campaign against the hardline Sunni Islamist group. U.S. special forces are also deployed in Iraq and Syria as part of the campaign.

Iraqi forces – trained by the U.S. military and backed by air strikes from a U.S.-led coalition – have since December managed to take back territory from Islamic State, which seized swathes of Iraqi and Syrian territory in 2014.

The new U.S. troops will consist of advisers, trainers, aviation support crew, and security forces. Most of the new military advisers are expected to be army special forces, as is the case with the approximately 100 advisers now in Iraq.

The advisers will be allowed to accompany smaller Iraqi units of about 2,500 troops that are closer to the frontlines of battle, whereas now they are limited to larger divisions of about 10,000 troops located further from the battlefield.

That will allow the U.S. military to offer quicker and more nimble advice to Iraqi troops as they try to retake Mosul, the largest Iraqi city still under Islamic State control.

But by placing them closer to the conflict, it could leave them more vulnerable to enemy mortars and artillery.

The United States has also authorized the use of Apache attack helicopters to support Iraqi forces in retaking Mosul, Carter said. The United States had originally offered the Apaches to the Iraqi government in December. The Iraqis did not take up the offer then but did not rule out their use.

The United States will also deploy an additional long-range rocket artillery unit to support Iraqi ground forces in the battle for Mosul, Carter said. There are two such batteries already in place in Iraq.

(Additional reporting by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Kevin Liffey

On ground in Syria, scant evidence of draw down trumpeted by Kremlin

Russian Navy Landing Ship

By Jack Stubbs and Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – A month since Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of most Russian forces from Syria, his military contingent there is as strong as ever, with fewer jets but many more attack helicopters able to provide closer combat support to government troops.

A Reuters analysis of publicly available tracking data shows no letup in supply missions: the Russian military has maintained regular cargo flights to its Hmeimim airbase in western Syria since Putin’s declaration on March 14.

Supply runs have also continued via the “Syrian Express” shipping route, Russian engineering troops have been deployed to the ancient city of Palmyra and further information has surfaced about Russian special forces operating in Syria – suggesting the Kremlin is more deeply embroiled in the conflict than it previously acknowledged.

“There hasn’t been a drawdown in any meaningful way,” said Nick de Larrinaga, Europe Editor of IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly. “Russia’s military presence in Syria is just as powerful now as it was at the end of 2015.”

Announcing a drawdown gave Putin some breathing space from Western political pressure over the operation, and an opportunity to carry out maintenance on heavily-used jets.

But by keeping a strong military force in place, Putin is maintaining his power to influence the situation in Syria by shoring up President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s closest ally in the Middle East.

He will also want to secure Russia’s role in efforts to broker a resolution to the conflict – a process the Kremlin has used to reassert itself as a global political power after being ostracized by the West over the Ukraine crisis.

As recently as Thursday, photos and video footage taken by Turkish bloggers for their online project Bosphorus Naval News showed a Russian Navy landing ship – the Saratov – en route to Russia’s Tartous naval facility in the western Syrian province of Latakia loaded with at least ten military trucks.

The Saratov is a regular feature on Russia’s “Syrian Express” shipping route, which Moscow has used to transport increased supplies and equipment to Syria since the military draw down was announced.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not respond to written questions submitted by Reuters

“MORE FORMIDABLE FORCE”

Russian troops and equipment have also been deployed to Syria by air in recent weeks.

An Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane operated by the Russian Air Force under registration number RA-78830 has flown two supply trips a month to Syria since December. Its last flight to Russia’s Latakia airbase was on April 9-10 according to tracking data on website FlightRadar24.com.

Able to carry up to 145 people or 50 tonnes of equipment, Il-76 planes have been used to transport heavy vehicles including helicopters to Syria, a Russian Air Force colonel told Reuters, bolstering the number of gunships in the country as Russia’s jet force deployment is wound down.

“We removed some planes and added helicopters. We don’t need mass bomb drops during a ceasefire,” the colonel said. “Helicopters fly lower and can observe the territory better.”

Russia now has more than 30 helicopters operating in Syria, including a fleet of around eight Mi-28N Night Hunter and Ka-52 Alligator gunships stationed at its Shayrat airbase southeast of Homs city, according to satellite images posted online by IHS Jane’s analysts.

Separate images show 22 jets and 14 helicopters stationed at the Hmeimim airbase, compared to 29 jets and 7 helicopters seen there in early February, said Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

“All that’s really gone is the fixed wing close air support attack jets,” he said. “On the rotary side it’s a substantially more formidable force than it was.”

SPECIAL FORCES

The Ka-52, known for its unusual double set of top-mounted rotor blades and no tail rotor, is the Russian military’s official special forces support helicopter and its appearance in Syria is testament to the growing number of Russian ground troops in direct combat roles, western officials say.

Russia acknowledged having special forces in Syria for the first time shortly after its military drawdown was announced, saying they were conducting high-risk reconnaissance missions and “other special tasks”.

Since the announcement, Western diplomats say Russia’s forces have increasingly targeted Islamic State militants and an offshoot of al Qaeda. Previously Russia focused its strikes on other Assad opponents, including some viewed by the West as moderate.

Swapping jets for helicopters illustrates Russia’s new military role in the Syrian conflict, engaging directly with fighting on the ground instead of dropping bombs from thousands of feet.

“Russia’s attack helicopters are getting much more into the thick of things than their fixed wing aircraft were previously,” said de Larrinaga. “We never really saw Russian strike aircraft operating at low level like this before.”

Both the Ka-52 and Mi-28N, which is broadly equivalent to the U.S. Apache gunship, were used to provide close air cover to the Syrian army when it secured a major victory by retaking Palmyra from Islamic State militants in March.

Bronk said the helicopter deployment was in response to the changing needs of the Syrian army.

“They are no longer bombarding besieged cities so much, trying to dislodge rebels,” he said. “Instead they are trying to assist a more mobile, maneuverable style of engagement.”

“Because that tactical role or focus of Assad’s forces has changed, then the Russian support methodology needs to change along with it.”

(Writing by Jack Stubbs; editing by Peter Graff)

U.S. and allies conduct 36 strikes against Islamic State

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States and its allies conducted 36 strikes against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria on Thursday, the coalition leading the operations said.

In a statement released on Friday, the Combined Joint Task Force said six strikes in Syria, five of them near Mar’a, hit five tactical units and destroyed four vehicles, two fighting positions and a bulldozer.

In Iraq, 30 strikes near six cities, 21 of them near Mosul, hit several tactical units, 18 modular oil refineries, two crude oil stills and destroyed 51 boats among other targets, the statement said.

(Reporting by Washington Newsroom)

Syria HNC offers to share transition

Al-Muslat, spokesman for the HNC, attends an interview with Reuters in Geneva,

GENEVA (Reuters) – Syria’s main opposition group is willing to share membership of a transitional governing body with current members of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, but not Assad himself, the group’s spokesman told Reuters in Geneva.

“There are many people on the other side who we can really deal with,” Salim al-Muslat, the spokesman for the High Negotiations Committee, said on the second day of a round of U.N.-mediated peace talks in Geneva.

“We will have no veto, as long as they don’t send us criminals, as long as they don’t send us people involved in the killing of Syrians.”

(This version of the story corrects last word to say “Syrians” instead of “criminals”)

(Reporting by Tom Miles; editing by John Stonestreet)

Iran, France concerned with Syria violence

Residents inspect damages after an airstrike on the rebel held al-Maysar neighborhood in Aleppo

By Tom Perry, John Irish and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

BEIRUT/PARIS/DUBAI (Reuters) – France and Iran voiced concern over escalating violence in Syria on Tuesday, echoing warnings from the United States and Russia as fighting near the city of Aleppo put more pressure on a fragile truce agreement.

The already widely violated “cessation of hostilities” agreement brokered by Russia and the United States has been strained to breaking point by an upsurge in fighting between Syrian government forces and rebels near Aleppo.

The escalation underlines the already bleak outlook for peace talks set to reconvene this week in Geneva. The United Nations says the talks will resume on Wednesday. The government delegation has said it is ready to join the talks from Friday.

With President Bashar al-Assad buoyed by Russian and Iranian military support, the Damascus government is due to hold parliamentary elections on Wednesday, a vote seen by Assad’s opponents as illegitimate and provocative.

Iran said an increase in ceasefire violations could harm the political process a day after Russia said it had asked the United States to stop a mobilization of militants near Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city until the conflict erupted in 2011.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking after a meeting with U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura in Tehran, blamed the “increasing activities of armed groups” for the violations.

France, which backs the opposition, also expressed concern, but blamed the other side. “It warns that the impact of the regime and its allies’ offensives around Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta are a threat to the cessation of hostilities,” government spokesman Romain Nadal said. The Eastern Ghouta is an opposition-held area near Damascus.

Syria’s civil war has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world’s worst refugee crisis, allowed for the rise of Islamic State and drawn in regional and international powers. The intervention of Russia swung the war in Assad’s favor.

WASHINGTON “VERY, VERY CONCERNED”

The United States, which also backs rebels fighting Assad, on Monday said it was “very, very concerned” about increased violence and blamed the Syrian government for the vast majority of truce violations.

Both the government and a large number of rebel groups had pledged to respect the cessation of hostilities agreed in February with the aim of allowing a resumption of diplomacy towards ending the five-year-long war. Jihadist groups including the Nusra Front and Islamic State were not part of the deal.

A senior official close to the Syrian government said the truce had effectively collapsed.

“On the ground the truce does not exist,” said the official, who is not Syrian and declined to be named because he was giving a personal assessment. “The level of tension in Syria will increase in the coming months.”

The eruption of fighting on the front lines south of Aleppo marks the most serious challenge yet to the truce.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based organization that tracks the war, said dozens of government fighters had been killed in a big offensive to take the town of Telat al-Eis near the Aleppo-Damascus highway on Tuesday.

A rebel fighting in the area said the assault launched at dawn was backed by Russian air strikes and Iranian militias, adding that the attackers had suffered heavy losses. The Syrian military could not be reached for comment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have both deployed in the southern Aleppo area in support of the government, while the Nusra Front is also fighting in close proximity to other rebels.

The Syrian prime minister was quoted on Sunday as saying government forces were preparing a major operation in the region with Russian support.

Further south in Homs province, Russia said one of its attack helicopters had crashed in the early hours of Tuesday, killing both pilots. It said the helicopter had not been shot down and the cause of the crash was being investigated.

“PROVOCATIVE” ELECTION

De Mistura, speaking in Tehran, said he and Amir-Abdollahian had agreed on the importance of the cessation continuing, that aid should reach every Syrian and that “a political process leading to a political transition is now crucially urgent”.

De Mistura, whose two predecessors quit, has said he wants the next round of Geneva talks to be “quite concrete” in leading towards a political transition.

Ahead of the first round of talks, Damascus had ruled out any discussion of the presidency, calling it a red line.

A senior Iranian official on Saturday rejected what he described as a U.S. request for Tehran’s help to make Assad leave power, saying he should serve out his term and be allowed to run in a presidential election “as any Syrian”.

Some members of the main Syrian opposition alliance, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), arrived in Geneva on Tuesday, and U.N. spokesman in Geneva Ahmad Fawzi said the talks were expected to begin on Wednesday.

De Mistura is working according to a U.N. Security Council resolution approved in December that sets out a political process including elections after the establishment of “credible” governance and the approval of a new constitution.

The Syrian government says it is holding Wednesday’s elections in line with the existing timetable that requires a vote every four years. Russia has said the vote does not go against the peace talks and is in line with the constitution.

French President Francois Hollande last month, however, said the idea was provocative and “totally unrealistic”.

(Additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva, and Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)

Syria’s Assad shows no willingness to compromise

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview with Russia's RIA news agency

By Samia Nakhoul

CAIRO (Reuters)- – As the Syria peace talks resume next week, President Bashar al-Assad, backed militarily by Iran and Russia, shows no willingness to compromise, much less step aside to allow a transition Western powers claim is the solution to the conflict.

Threatened by rebel advances last year, Assad is now pumped up with confidence after Russian air strikes reversed the tide and enabled his army to recover lost ground from Sunni insurgents as well as the jihadis of Islamic State.

While Syria experts doubt he can recapture the whole country without an unlikely full-scale ground intervention by Russia and Iran, they also doubt President Vladimir Putin will force him out – unless there is a clear path to stability, which could take years.

Instead, Russia’s dramatic military intervention last September — after five years of inconclusive fighting between Assad and fragmented rebel groups mostly from Syria’s Sunni majority — has tilted the balance of power in his favour and given him the upper hand at the talks in Geneva.

The main target of the Russian air force bombardment was mainstream and Islamist forces that launched an offensive last summer. Only recently have Russia and Syrian forces taken the fight to Islamic State, notably by recapturing Palmyra, the Graeco-Roman city the jihadis overran last year.

The Russian campaign, backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Shi’ite militia such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has for now outmatched the rebels, including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and units supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States.

REBELS LOSE MOMENTUM

Dealing with those groups rather than Islamic State seemed the main aim of Moscow’s intervention, analysts say.

“The Russian intervention fundamentally reshaped the Syrian conflict,” says Kheder Khaddour from the Carnegie Middle East Center. “The momentum of the rebels does not exist any more.”

Putin, diplomats say, weakened the opposition to coax it into accepting a settlement on Russian and Syrian terms. That does not mean the “transitional authority” sought by the U.S. and its allies, but a government expanded to include elements of the opposition, with Assad at its head for the immediate future.

Russia still wants Assad to lead the transition to the elections, while the opposition and its regional allies, including the United States and Europe, insist he should step down. So far no compromises are in sight.

“We need things to advance in the coming weeks. If the political process is just about putting a few opposition people in nominal cabinet posts then this isn’t going to go very far,” said a European diplomat close to the talks..

“If there isn’t a political transition the civil war will continue and Islamic State will benefit from it,” he said.

Fawaz Gerges, author of ISIS: A History, said: “At this point the Russians have the upper hand in dictating a solution. The Americans are playing on Russia’s playing field.”

UNCERTAINTY

His judgment is underlined by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, who boasted in a recent interview that “the Americans understand they can do nothing without Russia. They can no longer solve serious problems on their own”.

Yet uncertainty surrounds Moscow’s intentions, after Putin suddenly withdrew part of his forces from Syria last month. That led to speculation among Assad’s enemies that Russia was contemplating whether to ditch Assad – an outcome many Syria watchers find highly improbable.

“The key issue remains when and if the Russians will act to facilitate this transition. It’s unclear, and we get the feeling that the recent talks didn’t change much in the Russian position,” the European diplomat said.

“I don’t think the upcoming round will reach any real decisions on the political process, he added.

Gerges says the partial pull-back sent a message to the Americans that Russia is a rational and credible force that is interested in a diplomatic settlement.

It was also intended as a jolt to Assad, by then so emboldened at the way Russia and Iran had transformed his weak position that he was announcing plans to recapture all of Syria.

“The message to the Assad regime was that Russia doesn’t play by Assad’s playbook, it doesn’t want to get down in Syria’s quagmire (but) wants to cut its losses,” Gerges believes.

But it is far from clear that Assad interprets these messages the same way.

Last month, he dismissed any notion of a transition from the current structure, as agreed by international powers, calling instead for “national unity” solution with some elements of the opposition joining the present government.

“The transition period must be under the current constitution, and we will move on to the new constitution after the Syrian people vote for it,” Assad told Russia’s Sputnik news agency.

ASSAD “WILL NOT GO QUIETLY”

Faisal al-Yafai, a leading commentator from the United Arab Emirates, says Russia “played its cards in Syria very cleverly, but miscalculated in one aspect”.

“They assumed that once the (Assad) regime felt secure, it would be more willing to negotiate. In fact, the opposite has happened”.

“There’s a limit to the pressure that Russia can exert on Assad. Assad absolutely will not go quietly — and certainly not when there is no real alternative to him, even within the regime,” says al-Yafai.

Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, agrees that Russia may not be able to compel Assad to go.

The secret police backbone of Assad’s rule remains intact, he says, and “Assad seems confident again, after his much more sober tone last summer. The Russians may have helped him too much, such that Assad can maintain control of key cities and roads for a long time”.

Ford also drew attention to the competition over Syria between Russia and Iran, Assad’s two main allies. Moscow’s emphasis is on its traditional relations with the Syrian military establishment, while Tehran focusses on the militia network it built with Hezbollah to shore up the regime.

“Assad is plenty smart to know how to play one country off against the other. I am not even sure Russia would test its heavy pressure capacity against that of Iran in Damascus. The Russians know they might lose”, Ford said.

Russia’s involvement in Syria has given it greater insight into the structure of the Assad rule, constructed to intermesh the Assad family and allies from its minority Alawite community with the security services and military command.

ASSAD BUOYANT

Khaddour from Carnegie says Russia now realises the circumstances for a transition do not yet exist, because removing Assad might unravel the whole power structure.

“There is a problem within the regime. It is not capable of producing an alternative to itself internally,” says Khaddour, adding the only concession it has made – simply to turn up in Geneva – was the result of Russian pressure.

With limits to Russian and Iranian influence on a newly buoyant Assad, few believe the Geneva talks will bring peace.

“If the Russians felt it was time for a solution they would have reached an understanding with the Americans to give up on Assad without giving up on the Alawites. The circumstances are not ripe yet for a solution,” says Sarkis Naoum, a leading commentator on Syria.

The diplomat added: “The fundamental question is still whether the Russians are serious and want this to happen.”

“Nobody knows what’s in their mind and I’m not sure they even know.”

(Additional reporting by John Irish; Editing by Giles Elgood)

Yemen Families Uprooted By War

A girl holds her sister outside their family's hut at the Shawqaba camp

By Abduljabbar Zeyad

HAJJAH, Yemen (Reuters) – They live in scruffy tents or mud huts on dry, stony ground. Children play with what they have – a rubber tire will do. Medical treatment is hard to come by for young and old alike.

In northwest Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East, families uprooted by the war have been stuck in camps for the past year.

Around 400 of them now reside in the Shawqaba camp in Hajjah province, which borders Saudi Arabia. A visiting Reuters photographer has captured their life in a Wider Image photo essay found at http://reut.rs/226i5tr .

When fighting between Saudi forces and Houthi rebels began in March 2015, these refugees were forced to leave their villages in al-Dhahir and Shada districts in neighboring Saada province as Saudi-led warplanes targeted Houthi positions.

Residents and human rights groups say some of the strikes destroyed homes and damaged farmlands. The coalition has acknowledged mistakes in air operations in Yemen but denies Houthi allegations that its forces strike civilian targets.

A few months later, the place they sought refuge, al-Mazraq camp near the border city of Harad, also in Hajjah, was bombarded.

Families moved further inland to the arid Shawqaba camp that lacks the most basic services. Residents call home poorly build huts that protect them neither from summer heat nor winter cold.

Amal Jabir, 10, standing outside her family’s hut, says there’s only one thing she wishes for.

“I want this war to be over, to return home and finish my studies,” she says.

Many children suffer from a lack of nutrition and health services. Muhammad, 11, is waiting for treatment of his fractured leg.

Elderly people with diabetes and heart conditions complain of a lack of medicine – and the high prices when it is available.

Yemen has been in a civil war for more than a year between supporters of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the Iran-allied Houthi group that has sucked in a Saudi-led alliance and caused a major humanitarian crisis.

U.N.-sponsored peace talks are scheduled to start in Kuwait on April 18. The two sides in the conflict have confirmed a truce starting at midnight on April 10.

(Reporting by Khaled Abdullah; Writing by Brian McGee; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

Fierce Afghan Fighting Slows NATO

Incoming Commander of Resolute Support forces and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, U.S. Army General John Nicholson speaks during a change of command ceremony in Resolute Support headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan,

By Paul Tait

FORWARD OPERATING BASE GAMBERI, Afghanistan (Reuters) – Intense fighting and unprecedented casualties suffered by Afghan forces in 2015 have put U.S. and NATO efforts to train a self-sufficient force behind schedule, the new commanding general in Afghanistan told Reuters on Monday.

The impact of the violence in 2015, and the changing nature of the enemy Afghan troops face, will form an important part of an initial assessment of conditions in Afghanistan being conducted by new commander General John Nicholson.

“This intense period of combat interfered with the glide slope we were on. The assumptions we made about our timelines, we have to re-look based upon the high casualties they took,” Nicholson said in his first interview since taking command of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan last month.

“It wasn’t just the high casualties, which require replacement and retraining,” he said.

“There was also the fact that they had to stop training and fight all year. So this put us behind on our projections in terms of the growth and increasing proficiency of the army and the police.”

Nicholson is about a third of the way through the 90-day assessment he will present in Washington some time in June.

It could be the most significant since General Stanley McChrystal recommended a “surge” in 2009 that took U.S. troop numbers to 100,000 and the overall NATO force to about 140,000.

Under the current timeline, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan will fall from 9,800 at present to 5,500 by the start of 2017, barring a dramatic change of thinking in Washington.

The adherence to that timeline could be affected by the success of the mission to train Afghan soldiers and police, and to build a proficient air force to support them.

Nicholson would not be drawn on his recommendations for future troop levels.

Taliban gains, including their brief capture of the key northern city of Kunduz last year, led his predecessor General John Campbell to recommend dropping plans to cut U.S. troop numbers from the start of 2016 and instead maintain the 9,800-strong force before a reduction by the start of next year.

Originally President Barack Obama had intended roughly to halve U.S. troop numbers in Afghanistan this year and cut the force to just 1,000 troops based at the U.S. embassy in Kabul by the start of 2017.

HEAVY LOSSES

Nicholson said Afghan forces suffered 5,500 killed in action and more than 14,000 wounded in 2015, significantly affecting the U.S.-led training and assistance mission.

“This would be an enormous shock for any army, (including) a young army that is still growing. Yet they did not break,” Nicholson said, after touring Forward Operating Base Gamberi in eastern Laghman province, one of the four main training bases.

A recent report from the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said it was unlikely that a “robust and sustainable” force would develop without a continuing strong U.S. and NATO presence.

Nicholson said that the heavy fighting of 2015 and casualties suffered by Afghan forces would be among the conditions NATO leaders would consider when deciding when to withdraw.

Nicholson added that “some more years” were needed to expand and train the fledgling Afghan air force now that U.S. and NATO aircraft take part in fewer operations. That effort in turn was affected by the heavy fighting in 2015.

“The pilots that we’re training are going directly into combat. The combat affects the speed with which we can train and field the air force,” he said.

“Until that airforce is fully fielded, the Afghans are at increased risk,” he said.

(Additional reporting by James Mackenzie; Editing by Mike Collett-White)

Turkey illegally returned Syrians

A woman holding a child reacts as Turkish police and gendarmes block migrants on a highway

By Dasha Afanasieva and Tulay Karadeniz

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey has illegally returned thousands of Syrians to their war-torn homeland in recent months, highlighting dangers for migrants sent back from Europe under a deal due to take effect next week, Amnesty International said on Friday.

Turkey agreed with the EU this month to take back all migrants and refugees who cross illegally to Greece in exchange for financial aid, faster visa-free travel for Turks and slightly accelerated EU membership talks.

But the legality of the deal hinges on Turkey being a safe country of asylum, which the rights group said in a report was not the case. Amnesty said it was likely that several thousand refugees had been sent back to Syria in the past seven to nine weeks, flouting Turkish, EU and international law.

Turkey’s foreign ministry denied Syrians were being sent back against their will, while a spokesman for the European Commission said it took the allegations seriously and would raise them with Ankara.

Separately, the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR said it had asked for access to Syrians returned to Turkey from Greece “to ensure people can benefit from effective international protection and to prevent risk of refoulement”, referring to unlawful deportations of refugees at risk of persecution.

Ankara said it had maintained an open-door policy for Syrian migrants for five years and strictly abided by the “non-refoulement” principle.

“None of the Syrians that have demanded protection from our country are being sent back to their country by force,” a foreign ministry official told Reuters.

But Amnesty said testimonies it had gathered in Turkey’s southern border provinces suggested authorities had been rounding up and expelling groups of around 100 Syrian men, women and children almost daily since the middle of January.

“In their desperation to seal their borders, EU leaders have wilfully ignored the simplest of facts: Turkey is not a safe country for Syrian refugees and is getting less safe by the day,” said John Dalhuisen, Amnesty International’s director for Europe and Central Asia.

Under the deal, Turkey is supposed to be taking in migrants returned from Greece on April 4, but uncertainty remains over how many will be sent back, how they will be processed, and where they will be housed.

The aim is to close the main route by which a million migrants and refugees crossed the Aegean Sea to Greece in the last year before heading north, mainly to Germany and Sweden.

(Additional reporting by Gabriela Baczynska in Brussels and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Nick Tattersall and John Stonestreet)