Trump Supreme Court pick would slash odds of surprise liberal victories

By Lawrence Hurley

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Amid a flurry of major rulings early this summer, the U.S. Supreme Court in an under-the-radar case handed a significant win to Native Americans by finding for the first time that almost half of Oklahoma is tribal land.

The ruling was a 5-4 decision in which conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch joined the four liberal justices, one of a handful of such surprise victories by the liberal wing of the court in recent terms.

The death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and her possible replacement by a conservative appointed by President Donald Trump imperil such unlikely liberal wins in coming years.

The 5-4 conservative majority before Ginsburg’s death meant that the liberals on certain key issues only needed one conservative colleague siding with them.

Now, if Trump replaces her, they would need two, with likely implications for headline-grabbing issues on which liberals have prevailed in recent years, including abortion and gay rights, as well as lesser-known cases.

“The stars would have to line up,” said John Elwood, a Supreme Court lawyer.

The last two Supreme Court terms have defied expectations with a series of 5-4 rulings in which Chief Justice John Roberts joined the liberals in ruling against Trump’s bid to add a citizenship question to the U.S. census, blocking the president’s effort to rescind protections for young immigrants known as “Dreamers” and striking down a Louisiana abortion restriction.

But there are also several lesser-noticed 5-4 rulings that would have been unlikely with a 6-3 conservative majority.

The Oklahoma ruling was one. It is one of three 5-4 cases on Native American issues in which Gorsuch, who was appointed by Trump, joined the four liberals in the majority.

Similarly, Gorsuch two years ago was the fifth vote for the liberal wing of the court in striking down part of an immigration law that made it easier to deport people convicted of certain criminal offenses. He also cast the deciding vote that year in two 5-4 criminal cases in favor of defendants.

Last year, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, another conservative appointed by Trump, joined the four liberals in a 5-4 ruling that gave the greenlight to an antitrust lawsuit accusing Apple Inc of forcing consumers to overpay for iPhone software applications.

In an important case on evolving privacy rights in the age of the smartphone, Roberts and the four liberals prevailed in another 5-4 case in 2018 as the court imposed limits on the ability of police to obtain cellphone data pinpointing the past location of criminal suspects.

Whether the three liberals will be able to cobble together a majority in similar cases in future depends in large part on the identity of Trump’s nominee.

UNPREDICTABLE VOTES

Trump has said he intends to announce his nomination on Saturday, with conservative appeals court judges Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa considered the frontrunners to be named to succeed Ginsburg, who died last Friday at age 87. The Republican-controlled Senate, which has to vote on whether to approve or reject the nomination, is poised to act even ahead of Nov. 3, when Trump is seeking re-election.

Carolyn Shapiro, a professor at Chicago-Kent College of Law, said that even before Ginsburg’s death, the 5-4 cases in which liberals prevailed were contingent on the individual legal reasoning of the conservative who joined them. It might be possible to win certain cases with a 6-3 majority, she added, but it will be harder.

“Those occasions are likely to be fairly idiosyncratic and mostly unpredictable,” Shapiro said.

One area where liberal votes may still be key is on LGBT rights. In June, the court to the dismay of conservatives ruled 6-3 that federal law that outlaws sex discrimination in the workplace applies to gay, lesbian and transgender people.

In that case, both Roberts and Gorsuch were in the majority with the liberals, so even with Ginsburg’s absence, five of the votes in favor of LGBT workers remain on the court. Other cases on the definition of sex discrimination under other federal laws are likely to reach the court soon.

Shannon Minter, a lawyer with the National Center for Lesbian Rights, said he is “hopeful” that the majority remains intact but noted that every time there is a change in personnel on the court it can change the internal dynamic in unpredictable ways.

As such, he added, “Ginsburg’s absence is a significant factor.”

(Reporting by Lawrence Hurley; Editing by Mary Milliken and Alistair Bell)

Trump-appointed justice could signal major Supreme Court shift on abortion

By Lawrence Hurley

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – With President Donald Trump poised to nominate a U.S. Supreme Court justice to fill the vacancy created by the death of liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a new 6-3 conservative majority could be emboldened to roll back abortion rights.

The ultimate objective for U.S. conservative activists for decades has been to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide. But short of that, there are other options the court has in curtailing abortion rights.

Republican-led states including Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, Arkansas and Alabama have passed a variety of abortion restrictions in recent years. Some that seek to ban abortion at an early stage of pregnancy are still being litigated in lower courts and could reach the justices relatively soon.

Abortion is one the most divisive issues in the United States. Conservative opposition to it has been a driving force behind Republicans, including Trump, making a high priority of judicial appointments in recent years.

“Roe v. Wade is on the line in a way it never has been before,” said Julie Rikelman, a lawyer with the Center for Reproductive Rights, which regularly challenges abortion restrictions.

Even if Roe is not overturned, “we could be in a situation where the court is upholding even more restrictions on abortion,” Rikelman added.

Trump has said he intends to announce his nomination on Saturday, with conservative appeals court judges Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa considered the frontrunners to be named to succeed Ginsburg, who was a strong defender of abortion rights. Ginsburg died on Friday at age 87.

The leadership of the Republican-controlled Senate is poised to move forward with the nomination even as Trump seeks re-election on Nov. 3.

Even though the court had a 5-4 conservative majority before Ginsburg’s death, some activists on the right were concerned about Chief Justice John Robert’s incremental approach. Roberts angered conservatives by siding with the court’s liberals in June when the court ruled 5-4 to strike down a Louisiana abortion restriction involving a requirement imposed on doctors who perform the procedure.

Roberts, who wrote a separate opinion explaining his views, signaled he may back other abortion restrictions in future cases but said he felt compelled to strike down Louisiana’s law because the justices just four years earlier had invalidated a similar law in Texas.

Trump vowed during the 2016 presidential campaign to appoint justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade. He already has appointed conservatives Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the court. Both voted to uphold the Louisiana law.

Anti-abortion groups are pushing for Trump to pick Barrett, a conservative Roman Catholic who he appointed to the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2017. Although she has not yet ruled directly on abortion as a judge, Barrett has twice signaled opposition to rulings that struck down abortion-related restrictions.

Abortion rights activists have voiced concern that Barrett would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.

STATE-BY-STATE EFFORTS

Broadly speaking, Republican-controlled states have enacted two types of abortion laws: measures that would impose burdensome regulations on abortion providers and those that would ban abortions during the early stages of pregnancy.

The latter laws in particular directly challenge Roe v. Wade and a subsequent 1992 ruling that upheld it. Those two rulings made clear that women have a constitutional right to obtain an abortion at least up until the point when the fetus is viable outside the womb, usually around 24 weeks or soon after.

Legal challenges to laws recently enacted in conservative states that directly challenge the Roe precedent by banning abortion outright or in early stages of pregnancy are still being litigated in lower courts.

One appeal pending at the Supreme Court that the justices will discuss whether to hear in the coming months is Mississippi’s bid to revive a law that bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

In a separate case the court could act upon at any time, the Trump administration has asked the justices to put on hold a federal judge’s decision to block during the coronavirus pandemic a U.S. Food and Drug Administration rule requiring women to visit a hospital or clinic to obtain a drug used for medication-induced abortions.

Clarke Forsythe, a lawyer with the Americans United for Life anti-abortion group that has urged Barrett’s appointment, said he expects the Supreme Court to “continue with an incremental approach” even if Trump’s nominee is confirmed, in part because of Roberts’ opinion in the Louisiana case.

But Jennifer Dalven, a lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union, which backs abortion rights, said that with only four votes among the justices needed to take up a case, a newly emboldened conservative wing could force Roberts’ hand and take up a more direct challenge to Roe.

“Now,” Dalven said, “Chief Justice Roberts and his concern for the integrity for the court and his potential for being an incrementalist is not enough.”

(Reporting by Lawrence Hurley; Editing by Will Dunham and Scott Malone)

Potential Trump Supreme Court pick Lagoa is fast-rising Cuban-American judicial star

By Jan Wolfe

(Reuters) – Barbara Lagoa, the Cuban-American federal appellate judge under consideration by President Donald Trump for the U.S. Supreme Court, is a conservative jurist whose resume includes a role in a heated international custody battle and the distinction of being the first Hispanic woman to serve on Florida’s top court.

If picked by Trump and confirmed by the U.S. Senate to replace liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died of pancreatic cancer at age 87 on Friday, Lagoa, 52, would become only the second Hispanic to serve on the Supreme Court, following current Justice Sonia Sotomayor. She would give the court a 6-3 conservative majority.

Lagoa has less than a year of experience as a federal judge, having joined the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last December after being appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate in a 80-15 bipartisan vote. The 11th Circuit is one of the regional appeals courts that are one step below the Supreme Court.

While Lagoa has not served long on the 11th Circuit, she took part in a major ruling reversing a judge’s decision striking down a Florida law that requires that people with past serious criminal convictions pay all fines, restitution and legal fees before regaining the right to vote. Critics have compared the Republican-backed law to poll taxes imposed in the past in some states to keep Black people from voting.

Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a close ally of Trump, named Lagoa to the Florida Supreme Court – his first official act in the job – in January 2019, a major career boost for the former federal prosecutor who had served on an intermediate state court since being appointed by Republican former Governor Jeb Bush in 2006.

Lagoa is a member of Florida’s large and politically influential Cuban-American community. Her parents fled Cuba after Fidel Castro’s communist revolution. She grew up in Hialeah outside Miami, graduated from Florida International University and earned her law degree at Columbia University, the same Ivy League school as Ginsburg did.

ELIAN GONZALEZ INCIDENT

In 2000, she played a role in a major international incident between the United States and Cuba involving a 5-year-old boy named Elian Gonzalez who was rescued from the ocean after his mother drowned while fleeing Cuba with him. The boy’s father in Cuba sought his return and a legal battle ensued.

Lagoa provided free legal services to Cuban-American relatives of the boy who had sought to keep him in the United States. Ultimately, he was sent back to Cuba.

Lagoa has said her parents’ flight from Castro’s Cuba shaped her views and career.

“In the country my parents fled, the whim of a single individual could mean the difference between food or hunger, liberty or prison, life or death,” Lagoa said at an event last year. “Unlike the country my parents fled, we are a nation of laws, not of men.”

The liberal activist group Alliance for Justice has said Lagoa’s decisions “raise concerns that she will side with the wealthy and powerful at the expense of everyday Americans as a federal judge.”

It also cited a 2019 ruling in which Lagoa sided with businesses challenging Miami Beach’s minimum wage, as well as a decision she joined that made it harder for homeowners to fight foreclosure proceedings.

That year, Lagoa upheld DeSantis’ suspension of a sheriff for alleged incompetence following a mass shooting at a high school in Parkland, Florida.

Trump’s advisers see Lagoa as someone who would be a reliable conservative vote on the Supreme Court, said University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias, who studies judicial nominations.

Leonard Leo, who has been a key figure in the Federalist Society conservative legal group and worked closely with Trump on his Supreme Court appointments of Justices Neil Gorsuch in 2017 and Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, interviewed and endorsed Lagoa when she was under consideration for Florida’s top court.

“She doesn’t shy away from her Federalist Society credentials and being conservative,” Tobias said.

The Florida Family Policy Council, a group that opposes legalized abortion and LGBT rights, said last year Lagoa “has a conservative judicial philosophy” and “is also deeply committed to her faith.” Lagoa is Roman Catholic and attends a church in Miami.

In her interview for the Florida Supreme Court, Lagoa described herself as a “legal nerd.”

“I am a tough questioner and I ask pointed questions, but I always do so respectfully,” Lagoa said.

Lagoa’s husband, Paul Huck Jr., is a lawyer in the Miami office of Jones Day, a law firm often involved in Republican causes. They have three daughters. Lagoa’s father-in-law, Paul Huck Sr., is a semi-retired federal judge in Miami, appointed by Democratic former President Bill Clinton. She speaks fluent Spanish.

(Reporting by Jan Wolfe; Editing by Will Dunham and Scott Malone)