Important Takeaways:
- By Dmitry Suslov, member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, deputy director of World Economy and International Politics at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, and Valdai Club expert.
- There’s every indication that the US and several of its allies may soon allow Ukraine to use Western weapons, including long-range missiles, to attack targets located within – how do we put this? – Russia’s internationally recognized borders. Or those that existed before the 2014 Maidan in Kiev.
- In America, as the New York Times recently reported, backers of the idea include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, most Republicans in Congress (including the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson), and many members of the foreign policy establishment, including Victoria Nuland, who recently resigned as deputy secretary of state. In Europe, Poland, the Baltic states, Germany’s main opposition party, the CDU/CSU, and some Western European figures, including the head of the UK Foreign Office, David Cameron, are agitating for the measure.
- Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a similar appeal…
- Such a decision would take the conflict to a fundamentally different level, would mean the erasure of one of the brightest “red lines” that has existed since February 24, 2022, and signal the direct entry of the US and its NATO bloc into the war against Russia
- Accordingly, the worse the situation for Kiev at the front, the greater the risks of escalation that the West is willing to take.
- The voices of those who argue that even this time Moscow will not inflict direct military damage on Western countries are growing louder.
- This logic can inevitably lead to World War III. And if the West’s further involvement in the conflict in Ukraine is not stopped now, a full-scale “hot” war between Russia and NATO will become inevitable. Moreover, due to the superiority of the US and its 31 NATO members in the field of conventional weapons, this war will inevitably move to the nuclear level.
- [Russian response to US/NATO threats] we should first tell the US and NATO roughly what Moscow already told London after David Cameron’s words about Ukraine’s right to strike anywhere with British Storm Shadow missiles. Namely, that in the event of an attack on ‘old’ Russian territory, Moscow reserves the right to strike any facilities of the countries concerned, including the US, anywhere in the world. There are many American military bases dotted around the globe.
- Secondly, it is important to officially declare that if the US/NATO launches a non-nuclear strike on Russian territory in response to such a Russian strike, Moscow may in turn use nuclear weapons – in full accordance with the ‘Fundamentals of Russian State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence’.
- Thirdly, since there has been talk of possible attacks not only on British but also on American facilities (and of a possible direct military response from the US), it would be desirable to hold exercises on the use of strategic nuclear forces in addition to the current exercises on the use of tactical weapons.
- Finally, to confirm the seriousness of Russia’s intentions and to convince our adversaries of Moscow’s willingness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstration (i.e. non-aggressive) nuclear explosion. The political and psychological effect of an atomic mushroom cloud, broadcast live on all the world’s television channels, will hopefully bring back to Western politicians the one thing that prevented wars between the great powers after 1945, and which they have now largely lost – the fear of nuclear war.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine last night claimed it successfully hit a missile system inside Russia using U.S. weapons.
- It said the country’s forces destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region.
- Senior politician Yehor Chernev claimed Ukrainian forces used a High Mobility Rocket Artillery System, or HIMARS, The New York Times reported.
- Meanwhile, Joe Biden has ruled out Ukraine joining NATO in a major policy shift. The development comes after the defense alliance’s members, including the US and Britain, released a communique last year declaring ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’.
- While his remarks were met with heavy criticism in Kyiv, analysts believe Mr. Biden’s comments could bring a settlement closer.
- Russia has repeatedly referred to Ukraine’s possible membership of NATO to justify its invasion and occupation of the country.
- It comes as NATO countries are set to collaborate to create a ‘drone wall’ on the security alliance’s eastern flank that aims to provide round-the-clock monitoring of threats across the border from Russia and Belarus.
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Important Takeaways:
- Britain is engaged in a “gray war” with Russia, but neither the authorities nor the public are taking the situation seriously enough, the former head of the famed spy agency MI6, Richard Dearlove, has warned.
- The UK military isn’t getting enough money to be able to counter the “threats” posed by Moscow and Beijing, Richard Dearlove, who led the British Secret Intelligence Service between 1999 and 2004, said in an interview with Politico on Friday.
- The statement followed last week’s announcement of the UK’s budget for the next financial year, in which there was no increase in defense spending. It remains at 2% of the country’s GDP.
- “If you stopped anyone in the street here in the UK and asked them whether they thought Britain is at war, they’d look at you as if you were mad. But we are at war — we’re engaged in a gray war with Russia, and I am trying to remind people of that,” the former spy chief said.
- The British authorities have “got to make some tough choices, and I’m afraid the tough choices are in front of us right now. We should be spending at least 2.5%” on defense, he insisted.
- “We urgently need to be building more ships. We need a much bigger navy. And we need more boots on the ground, for God’s sake,” Dearlove stressed.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.
- In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.
- In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
- Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who supports a restriction lift, became the first U.S. official to publicly hint that Biden may shift course and allow such strikes, telling reporters that U.S. policy toward Ukraine would evolve as needed. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby later did not rule out a potential change.
- Those messages came after top U.S. allies, such as the United Kingdom and France, said Ukraine should have the right to attack inside Russia using Western weapons. Lawmakers from both parties also supported the move publicly and privately, while top U.S. military officials briefed Congress behind closed doors that relaxing the restriction had “military value,” POLITICO first reported.
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Important Takeaways:
- Victor Davis Hanson points out Western culture shouldn’t be so nonchalant about nuclear threats from autocratic nuclear nations. The Idea of “It can’t happen here” can prove fatal
- After a recent summit between new partners China and Russia, General Secretary Xi Jinping and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin issued an odd one-sentence communique: “There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought.”
- No one would disagree, even though several officials of both hypocritical governments have previously threatened their neighbors with nuclear attacks.
- But still, why did the two feel the need to issue such a terse statement — and why now?
- [In particular China, and Russia] both believe that the only impediment to their victories would be an intervention from the U.S. and the NATO alliance, a conflict that could descend into mutual threats to resort to nuclear weapons.
- Thus, the recent warnings of Xi and Putin.
- Almost monthly, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un continues his weary threats to use his nuclear arsenal to destroy South Korea or Japan.
- A similarly monotonous, pro-Hamas Turkish President Recep Erdogan…
- Iran’s theocrats simultaneously claim they are about ready to produce nuclear weapons. And, of course, since 1979, Iran has periodically promised to wipe Israel off the map and half the world’s Jews with it.
- Oddly, the global reaction to the promise of Armageddon remains one of nonchalance. Most feel that such strongmen rant wildly but would never unleash weapons of civilizational destruction
- Only Israel has an effective anti-ballistic missile dome. And the more the conventional power of the West declines, the more in extremis it will have to rely on a nuclear deterrent — at a time when it has no effective missile defense of its homelands.
- In a just-released book, “The End of Everything,” I wrote about four examples of annihilation — the classical city-state of Thebes, ancient Carthage, Byzantine Constantinople and Aztec Tenochtitlan — in which the unimaginable became all too real.
- In all these erasures, the targeted, naïve states believed that their illustrious pasts, rather than a realistic appraisal of their present inadequate defenses, would ensure their survival.
- If the past is any guide to the present, we should take heed that what almost never happens in war can certainly still occur.
- When killers issue wild, even lunatic, threats, we should nonetheless take them seriously.
- We should not count on friends or neutrals to save our civilization. Instead, Americans should build defense systems over the skies of our homeland, secure our borders, ensure our military operates on meritocracy, cease wild deficit spending and borrowing, and rebuild both our conventional and nuclear forces.
- Otherwise, we will naïvely — and fatally — believe that we are magically exempt when the inconceivable becomes all too real.
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Important Takeaways:
- World War III Watch: Eastern Europe NATO Allies Readying to Foil Russian Hybrid Attacks
- Wars and rumors of wars are having an impact on military preparedness right across Eastern Europe. NATO member Poland on Monday became the latest state to announce a boost, presenting a plan to strengthen its anti-drone surveillance and on-ground military capabilities in the face of continued Russian threats.
- The effort follows Finland, Norway, and Baltic states drawing up similar proposals to deter Moscow’s aggression.
- AP reports a system of fortifications and barriers along about 430 miles of Poland’s eastern border with Russia and Russian ally Belarus are part of the planning.
- The government says Poland, which supports neighboring Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s aggression, is being targeted by hostile actions by Russia and Belarus.
- They include cyberattacks, attempted arson and migrants being pushed illegally across the border, which officials describe as intended to destabilize the European Union, of which Poland is a member, the AP report notes
- Meanwhile the Baltic states announced plans alongside Norway, Finland and Poland to construct a “drone wall” along their shared borders with Russia on Sunday, Newsweek reports.
- Estonian Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets said the technology is capable of both detecting and repelling drones, adding his country plans to install the barrier along its entire eastern border as well as around its major cities.
- The announcement comes days after Russia said it plans to change its maritime borders in the Baltic Sea. Lithuania’s foreign minister responded last week, calling it an “obvious escalation” that must be met with an “appropriately firm response.”
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Important Takeaways:
- The Ukrainian government praised France’s “determination” for sending military advisors to the country, saying it hoped Paris making the first move would encourage other Western partners to deploy troops too.
- A months-long drama over French President Emmanuel Macron’s apparently intractable desire to deploy French soldiers directly to Ukraine appears to be approaching the point of action, as Ukraine reveals it has now legally cleared the way for foreign troops to arrive.
- Ukraine’s new Commander in Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi and the nation’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov had talks with their French counterpart Defense Minister Sebastien Lecorne, they said on Sunday, underlining how they welcomed French troops and appealed to the country for more equipment and ammunition to be donated.
- France’s Macron faced a barrage of criticism from fellow NATO leaders over going public with his views on sending troops to Ukraine, but despite the furor has restated that position dozens of times since. Earlier this month, Macron said he would not “rule anything out”, stating his view that: “If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe”.
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Important Takeaways:
- After his “sobering visit” to Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wants the White House to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory with American-supplied arms, The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 22, citing undisclosed official sources.
- The ban has prevented Kyiv from attacking Russian forces, which were amassing near Kharkiv Oblast for their offensive launched earlier in May, with advanced U.S. weaponry like ATACMS missiles.
- The news outlet noted that the proposal is still “in the formative stages” and that it is unclear how many other high-ranking officials in Biden’s team will support it.
- The plan would include permitting strikes against Russian military facilities but perhaps not oil refineries and other infrastructure that Ukraine has been hitting with homemade drones, according to the outlet.
- The Pentagon has also reiterated this position, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently hinted that the rules might be different in regards to aerial targets.
- “The aerial dynamic’s a little bit different,” Austin said during a press conference on May 20 but avoided saying explicitly whether attacks against Russian aircraft with U.S. arms are off-limit or not.
- Unlike Washington, the U.K. said it does not oppose Ukraine using British-supplied arms – which include Storm Shadow missiles – to strike Russian soil, provoking threats from Moscow.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia launched counter-space weapon capable of attacking U.S. satellites in orbit, Pentagon says
- Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters that Russia launched the weapon on May 16. He said the weapon is similar to other counter-space payloads that Russia launched in 2019 and 2022. But the most recent launch comes amid fears in Washington that the Kremlin might consider putting a nuclear weapon in space, and against the backdrop of the broader reality that space is shaping up to be a key battleground in 21st-century conflicts.
- “Russia deployed this new counter-space weapon into the same orbit as a U.S. government satellite,” he continued. “And so, assessments further indicate characteristics resembling previously deployed counter-space payloads from 2019 and 2022.”
- “Certainly, we would say that we have a responsibility to be ready to protect and defend the domain, the space domain, and ensure continuous and uninterrupted support to the Joint and Combined Force,” Gen. Ryder said. “And we’ll continue to balance the need to protect our interests in space with our desire to preserve a stable and sustainable space environment.”
- Speaking before the vote, Mr. Wood called the resolution “disingenuous.”
- “Colleagues, we are here today because Russia seeks to distract global attention from its development of a new satellite carrying a nuclear device,” he said.
- Last month, Russia vetoed a U.S.-backed resolution designed to prevent an arms race in outer space. The failure of both countries’ resolutions underscores how difficult it will be to find international agreement on the issue of weapons in space.
- Russia has been making advances on the space-based weapons fronts for years. In 2021, Russia conducted a “hit-to-kill” test that destroyed one of its own satellites, smashing it into what the Pentagon described as “more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris”
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Important Takeaways:
- Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Facilities Are Increasing. Why?
- The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a critical enforcement alert on Monday, warning water utilities nationwide to bolster cybersecurity measures immediately due to an increase in the frequency and severity of cyberattacks. According to the EPA, 70 percent of inspected water utilities violated standards designed to prevent security breaches, highlighting the urgent need for improved defenses. The alert comes as smaller communities become prime targets for attacks by groups linked to hostile actors in Russia, Iran, and China.
- In recent assessments, federal officials found water systems failing to implement basic security protocols, such as changing default passwords and revoking access from former employees. With many utilities relying heavily on computer software for operations, the EPA emphasized the importance of safeguarding both information technology and process controls to ensure uninterrupted water supply and safety.
- “In many cases, systems are not doing what they are supposed to be doing, which is to have completed a risk assessment of their vulnerabilities that includes cybersecurity and to make sure that plan is available and informing the way they do business,” said EPA Deputy Administrator Janet McCabe. She added: “China, Russia, and Iran are actively seeking the capability to disable U.S. critical infrastructure, including water and wastewater systems.”
- Recent incidents include the Iranian-affiliated Cyber Av3ngers hacking a small Pennsylvania town’s water utility and a Russian-linked group targeting Texas utilities. In the past, most cyber attacks on utilities have been spearheaded by private actors looking to ransom back access to the owners in the hopes of receiving a cash payment. However, hostile state-aligned actors have also stepped up attacks in recent years. U.S. officials have acknowledged that ‘Volt Typhoon,’ a Chinese-affiliated cyber group, has carried out multiple attacks on U.S. infrastructure.
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