Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that it was up to representatives of supplier countries to enter flight data into long-range Western missiles. Therefore, Moscow will see the Pentagon responsible for ATACMS strikes, the Russian President said.
- Indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot independently prepare strikes with the use of long-range Western missiles. Ukrainian military specialists would need to obtain data from Western reconnaissance satellites first. Ultimately, permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia would indicate NATO’s direct participation in the hostilities.
- This suggests that Ukraine may launch ATACMS missiles from positions located deep in Kiev-controlled territories. The US missiles will thus be able to hit Kursk, Voronezh, and parts of the Oryol region of Russia.
- Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Kyiv also received from the West, have a range of up to 300 kilometers. These missiles, in their current configuration, cannot reach Moscow or Tula. There are Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles with a range of up to 560 kilometers, but the West did not transfer modifications of those missiles to Kyiv.
- French publication Le Figaro wrote that Paris and London allowed Kyiv to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-to-surface cruise missiles to strike Russia. At the same time, a source of RBC-Ukraine reported in August that London could give such permission only with the consent of France, Germany and the United States, since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles use technologies from these countries.
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Important Takeaways:
- It was revealed last month that 12,000 North Korean troops had been sent to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. Now, they are reported to have been deployed to Kursk as part of the Russian counter-offensive, while Pyongyang this week ratified a landmark new defense pact with Moscow.
- There were already indications that North Korea had provided significant materiel to the Russian war effort, including 8 million rounds of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter ammunition and a number of ballistic missiles, according to figures from CSIS.
- But the deployment of soldiers – apparently to assist the 50,000 Russian troops – is a serious escalation.
- The implications could go further than that, however – including for the security of the Indo-Pacific, and particularly South Korea. Units that fight alongside Russian troops may get the opportunity to learn modern warfare techniques and tactics.
- … in a statement to Business Insider that “Russia is training North Korean soldiers to operate strike UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and reconnaissance drones”.
- Such training in the use of drones, counter-drone techniques, GPS jamming and other electronic warfare technologies in such a front-line environment – combined with Russian technology transfers – may end up serving as a catalyst for the modernization of North Korea’s large but famously outdated army.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack on the Kyiv region Wednesday, the third on the country in three days, but Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most of the airborne ordnance with only one injury reported.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a social media post that Russian missiles — including ballistic and cruise missiles targeting Kyiv — were shot down, along with about a dozen of about 90 drones involved in the attacks.
- Kyiv authorities said Wednesday’s two-hour-long attack, the first in more than two months, began with air-raid sirens sounding at around 6:30 a.m. local time as drones bore down on Kyiv Oblast and then cruise missiles, followed by a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv itself timed to coincide with the arrival of the cruise missiles.
- Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said the attack drones destroyed a house and seriously damaged a four-story apartment building with blazes breaking out on the upper levels.
- That came the day after Russia unleashed a record 145 drones Sunday — the largest attack of the war — against targets all across Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, which claimed to have shot most of them down.
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Important Takeaways:
- Vladimir Putin has amassed 40,000 of his soldiers and 10,000 North Koreans as he plots to attack Kursk in just days, a report claims.
- The Kremlin leader is set to try and claw back the area of Russia which Ukraine seized back in August.
- Those soldiers are said to be wearing Russian uniforms and have been equipped by Moscow, but will fight in their own units.
- Putin’s army has also been training the North Koreans in infantry tactics, artillery fire, and trench clearing.
- Russia’s major battlefield assault looms as Donald Trump’s election win could also change the shape of peace talks.
- Ukraine is waiting with bated breath for the Republican’s next move following his historic election win.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday launched a massive exercise of the country’s nuclear forces featuring missile launches in a simulation of a retaliatory strike, as he continued to flex the country’s nuclear muscle amid spiraling tensions with the West over Ukraine.
- Speaking in a video call with military leaders, Putin said that the drills would simulate top officials’ action in using nuclear weapons and include launches of nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.
- Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported that the exercise is intended to practice “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.”
- Putin, who has repeatedly brandished the nuclear sword as he seeks to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine, emphasized on Tuesday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a “reliable guarantor of the country’s sovereignty and security.”
- Putin noted that Moscow will continue to modernize its nuclear forces, deploying new missiles that have a higher precision, quicker launch times and increased capabilities to overcome missile defenses.
- As part of Tuesday’s drills, the military test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk launch pad at the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Defense Ministry said. The Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg nuclear submarines test-fired ICBMs from the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, while nuclear-capable Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles.
- The ministry said that all the missiles reached their designated targets.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia has been on a roll: the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine surprised an overconfident Vladimir Putin, yet the war continues, with Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
- From the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Mr. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons. He recently announced a new nuclear doctrine: Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear one, should be considered a joint attack.
- [meanwhile] China is building more missile silos: 120 in Gansu province and about 110 in Xinjiang province. China’s Rocket Force, established by President Xi Jinping, receives significant resources for the nuclear modernization program. China is not a member of New START and continues to refuse to discuss its nuclear program with the U.S.
- China continues to encircle and threaten Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the South China Sea despite a 2016 U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that said China’s actions were unlawful. China continues to ignore the ruling.
- North Korea has about 50 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce seven nuclear weapons per year. It also has a chemical and biological program, and in 2002, it was the only country that withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Since the failure of the February 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been in a race to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to launch them as far as the U.S. with the Hwasong-17, a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple reentry vehicles, with a range of 15,000 kilometers (over 9,320 miles), capable of reaching the entire U.S.
- Iran is in a category by itself.
- Iran enriches uranium to 60%, enabling it to produce weapons-grade uranium in a few weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency monitors Iran’s nuclear-related activities and has expressed concern about not getting the access its monitors require to certify that Iran is in compliance with IAEA safeguards.
- Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missile program is impressive — 12 types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles. It is only a matter of time before Iran has ICBMs capable of targeting Europe and the U.S. This is in addition to its support of its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s goal: to annihilate Israel.
- This is the axis of authoritarian states. The nations’ goal is to change the world order.
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to train and fight in Ukraine within “the next several weeks,” the Pentagon said Monday, in a move that Western leaders say will intensify the almost three-year war and jolt relations in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Some of the North Korean soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, and were believed to be heading for the Kursk border region, where Russia has been struggling to push back a Ukrainian incursion.
- Earlier Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte NATO confirmed recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that some North Korean military units were already in the Kursk region.
- Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II will pile more pressure on Ukraine’s weary and overstretched army. It will also stoke geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia, Western officials say.
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Important Takeaways:
- The minister, Andrei Belousov, delivered this stark warning during a high-stakes meeting with Belarusian defense officials in Minsk. “The increasing involvement of Western countries in the conflict in Ukraine creates global risks,” he declared. “The desire to inflict maximum damage on Russia could lead to a direct military clash between nuclear powers.” This statement is one of Russia’s clearest indications yet that it views the Ukraine conflict as a potential flashpoint for global warfare, particularly as NATO members continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and military aid.
- Belousov’s remarks have raised fears that Russia may resort to using nuclear weapons in response to any attack on Belarus, its closest military ally. “Changes in the military-political situation have necessitated the clarification of the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence,” Belousov stated, hinting at a possible nuclear retaliation if Belarus is threatened. He added that Moscow is adapting its defense strategies to new global realities, heightening concerns that the Ukraine war could spiral into a wider and more catastrophic conflict.
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Important Takeaways:
- South Korea warned Tuesday it could consider supplying weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching troops to Russia, as both North Korea and Russia denied the movements. NATO’s secretary general said that would mark a “significant escalation.”
- South Korean officials worry that Russia may reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that can boost the North’s nuclear and missile programs that target South Korea.
- The officials agreed to take phased countermeasures, linking the level of their responses to progress in Russian-North Korean military cooperation, according to the statement.
- Possible steps include diplomatic, economic and military options, and South Korea could consider sending both defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine, a senior South Korean presidential official told reporters on condition of anonymity in a background briefing.
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Important Takeaways:
- “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.
- The drills were accompanied by China declaring the possibility of invading and taking over Taiwan.
- “China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control,” Barrons said on Saturday.
- Days after the Sino naval drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military criticized the U.S. and Canada for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait as the two power blocks exercise show-of-force operations in the region.
- The recent directive by Jinping builds upon a similar order he dictated in 2023, a call for stronger military combat readiness, as well as echoes the ruler’s directives in 2018 to prepare for war.
- The recent war escalation with China follows escalations with Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran.
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