Canada Wildfires could get worse if rain doesn’t come

Matthew 24:7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places.

Important Takeaways:

  • Canada Wildfires Are Still Burning—Why and When Will it End?
  • Canada is already on track to have its worst season for wildfires, with over 20 million acres of forest burned, as a mix of hot and dry conditions is having devastating consequences for wildlife and poses increasing health risks for people in the path of smoke clouds.
  • The latest official maps as of Friday show the most intense wildfires in Canada are focused in Quebec and western Ontario, as well as in Alberta province, which borders Montana.
  • As of June 29, figures from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) show that there were 497 active fires, or which 229—nearly half—were out of control. In the year to date, 8.1 million hectares (about 20 million acres) of land have been burned.
  • Canada’s wildfire season typically runs from May to October, suggesting the situation could grow worse as 2023 progresses. Meanwhile, NASA said earlier this week that smoke clouds had already made it as far as western Europe.
  • “The other thing is that the forests aren’t managed, and therefore all of that fuel—i.e. the dead wood, et cetera—isn’t cleared, just because [the forests are] massive,” he said. “And so what you have is a stockpile of fuel which can be ignited very easily.”
  • Firefighting efforts alone are unlikely to quell the blazes.
  • Bringing the current swath of wildfires to a halt depends not merely on there being rain, but consistent or heavy rain over an extended period.

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Wildfire season has begun in Canada; 29,000 evacuated with over 100 fires raging

Alberta Canada Wildfire

Luke 21:25 “And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves

Important Takeaways:

  • More than 29,000 people are evacuated from communities throughout Alberta as wildfires rage in Canada
  • In the past 24 hours alone, 16 new fires have ignited in Alberta, Wildfire Information Unit Lead Christie Tucker said during a Sunday evening news conference.
  • Fighters across the province are still battling 98 wildfires, 27 of which were burning “out of control,” according to Alberta officials.
  • In a news conference Monday, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith asked residents with firefighting experience who can “lend a helping hand” to contact emergency services.
  • This type of ferocious wildfire activity isn’t typical this early in the year, and firefighters don’t usually see such a large area burned, Tucker said Sunday morning.
  • But bone-dry conditions, abnormally hot weather and high winds have converged to fuel this “really extreme wildfire activity,” Tucker said.
  • Wildfires have burned a total of 390,000 hectares in Alberta so far this year, and recent blazes have burned a “huge amount of ground” over the last few days, Tucker said.

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Alberta wildfire singes companies beyond energy sector

An aerial view of Highway 63 south of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada, shows smoke from the wildfires

By Euan Rocha and Allison Lampert

TORONTO/MONTREAL (Reuters) – The wildfire that has ravaged northern Alberta and cut Canadian crude output by 25 percent is set to crimp corporate earnings beyond the oil patch, especially hitting the rail and hospitality sectors.

The fire, which has caused an estimated $50 million a day in lost production for oil sands companies near the evacuated city of Fort McMurray, has also caused pain to large companies that serve the sector and smaller ones catering to thousands of industry workers.

Canadian National Railway Co  has said it ran a freight train to Fort McMurray for the first time since May 3. It typically operates three trains a week to the city.

Separately, the Bank of Canada came out with a more hawkish statement on Wednesday on how the economy will be hurt by damage from the wildfires. The central bank said the wildfire disaster will shave 1.25 percentage points off economic growth in the second quarter.

“The wildfires in Alberta continue to delay oil production restarts, weighing on petroleum product shipments tied to the region,” said Susquehanna rail analyst Bascome Majors.

The effect on Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd results will be limited since crude-by-rail accounts for a relatively small part of their revenues, Majors said.

Canadian National said crude oil represented just over 1 percent of car loadings in the first quarter. Canadian Pacific’s crude shipments have fallen 70 percent, 87 percent and 77 percent, respectively, over each of the last three weeks, according to company data.

With the combination of the wildfire and weak commodity prices challenging the railroads, Seaport Global Securities noted that the latest weekly data showed Canadian crude-related rail shipments fell 35 percent from last year and total Canadian rail volumes slid 18.6 percent.

Parts of the hospitality sector will also be hurt.

The Blacksand Executive Lodge owned by Horizon North Logistics Inc, a provider of camps and lodges for oil sands workers, was completely destroyed by the fire.

Temple Hotels Inc, which owns and operates 29 hotels, has nearly one-third of its properties in Fort McMurray. Analysts said near-term earnings will be hurt due to the fire, though they noted it could benefit when reconstruction begins.

Losses for property insurers like Intact Financial Corp and Aviva Plc AV. are likely to be capped, wrote Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan, who expects the largest share of the losses to fall on European reinsurers and Everest Re Group Ltd.

She noted that estimates pointed to overall insured losses topping out at close to $7 billion.

The fire has also crippled small business owners in Fort McMurray as only a trickle of its 90,000 evacuated residents will begin to return in early June.

“It’s really challenging for us right now. Even if we reopen, what sort of business will we get?” said Joycelyn Reece-Reid, co-owner J’s Fashions. “All I know is business just won’t be like it was for maybe quite a few years.”

Chad Gergley, who owns a wellness clinic and a yogawear business in the city, said 25 percent of his employees do not intend to return since they have either lost their homes or been forced to find jobs elsewhere.

“On top of a revenue hit that businesses in town are taking, we’re taking a people hit with employees scattering,” he said.

The eventual rebuilding will boost construction activity, but will take time and is unlikely to result in sustained growth, said ATB Financial Chief Economist Todd Hirsch, who believes many small businesses may never return.

“Even though there may be a positive lift to GDP, there’s absolutely nothing economically positive about this fire,” he said.

(Reporting by Euan Rocha in Toronto and Allison Lampert in Montreal; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

Hot weather, winds, complicate battle to control Alberta wildfire

An aerial view of Highway 63 south of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada, shows smoke from the wildfires

By Nia Williams

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) – Hot and dry weather and strong winds were expected to push a massive wildfire near Fort McMurray, Alberta eastward on Wednesday, threatening facilities and work camps in the prized oil sands region.

The fire, which began in early May, forced the evacuation of thousands of workers on Tuesday, prolonging a shutdown that has cut Canadian oil output by a million barrels a day. It destroyed a 665-room lodge for oil sands workers, then blazed eastward toward other camps.

Winds forecast for Wednesday were expected to push the blaze further to the east, putting oil operations in its path, officials said late on Tuesday. Heat and lack of rain also are complicating efforts to control the 355,000-hectare (877,224-acre) fire, which was also stretching toward the Saskatchewan border.

“We expect the fire to spread on the easterly side,” Alberta wildfire manager Chad Morrison said on a Tuesday call.

The latest forecast showed temperatures were expected to reach a high of 24 Celsius (75 Fahrenheit) in the Fort McMurray area on Wednesday, though there was also a 60 percent chance of rain on Thursday.

The wildfire is taking a toll on Alberta’s economy, with one study estimating that the lost oil production will cut the Western Canadian province’s gross domestic product (GDP) by more than C$70 million ($53.91 million) a day.

About 8,000 workers were evacuated from camps and facilities north of Fort McMurray on Tuesday, with both Suncor Energy Inc and Syncrude, majority owned by Suncor, removing all but bare essential staff from their major operations.

None of the oil sands have caught fire, and the industry has redoubled efforts to ensure facilities are well-protected. Officials said facilities have been cleared of vegetation and have lots of gravel on site, reducing the fire risk.

The Canadian supply disruptions have helped boost global oil prices, though Brent crude prices eased on Wednesday as the lost Canadian production was tempered by rising supplies elsewhere. [O/R]

In one encouraging sign for producers, cogeneration electric plants around Fort McMurray increased their output overnight with the restart of Suncor’s Firebag units, the operator of the province’s power grid said on Wednesday.

The roughly 90,000 residents of Fort McMurray are growing frustrated over the lack of an estimate for their return to the oil sands hub, which they were forced to flee about two weeks ago.

Officials told a town hall meeting late on Tuesday that they were narrowing down return dates which they hoped to share “very, very soon,” but added that the city remained unsafe.

($1 = 1.2984 Canadian dollars)

(With additional reporting by Julie Gordon in Vancouver, Scott DiSavino in New York and Jeffrey Hodgson and Allison Martell in Toronto; Editing by Paul Simao)

Canada hopes cooler weather aids battle with Alberta fire

Smoke and flames from the wildfires erupt behind cars on the highway near Fort McMurray

By Liz Hampton and Rod Nickel

LAC LA BICHE, Alberta (Reuters) – Canadian firefighters looked to cooler weather on Monday to help with their battle against the country’s most destructive wildfire in recent memory, as officials sought to gauge the damage to oil sands boomtown Fort McMurray.

The fire, which started on May 1, spread so quickly that the community’s 88,000 inhabitants barely had time to leave and whole neighborhoods were destroyed.

“This is great firefighting weather, we can really get in here and get a handle on this fire, and really get a death grip on it,” Alberta fire official Chad Morrison said on Sunday.

The wildfire scorching through Canada’s oil sands region in northeast Alberta had been expected to double in size on Sunday, but light rains and cooler temperatures helped hold it back.

The temperature, which reached a high of 17 C (63°F) on Sunday, was expected to cool further, with Environment Canada forecasting a 40 percent chance of showers in Fort McMurray on Monday.

Cooler temperatures around 10 C were expected through to Friday after last week’s record heat. Still, much of Alberta is tinder-box dry after a mild winter and warm spring.

Alberta’s government estimated on Sunday that the fire had consumed 161,000 hectares (395,000 acres).

Officials made clear it was too early to put a time line on getting thousands of evacuees camped out in nearby towns back to Fort McMurray soon, even if their homes are intact.

The city’s gas has been turned off, its power grid is damaged and the water is undrinkable.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said on Sunday recovery efforts had begun, with 250 employees from power company ATCO working to restore the power grid and assess gas infrastructure.

Fort McMurray is the center of Canada’s oil sands region. About half of the crude output from the sands, or 1 million barrels per day, has been taken offline, according to a Reuters estimate. Oil prices jumped almost 2 percent in trading early on Monday, as Canada’s fire contributed to tightening supply.[O/R] The inferno looks set to become the costliest natural disaster in Canada’s history. One analyst estimated insurance losses could exceed C$9 billion ($7 billion). Nearly all of Fort McMurray’s residents escaped the fire safely, although two people were killed in a car crash during the evacuation.

In his now regular evening message Fort McMurray fire chief Darby Allen on Sunday sent condolences to the families of the two teenage cousins in the crash. One of the victims, 15-year-old Emily Ryan, was the daughter of a fireman in the city.

Regional officials also said via Facebook that firefighters were getting their first break since the fire began a week ago after being relieved by reinforcements.

(With additional reporting by Nia Williams in Calgary; Writing by Jeffrey Hodgson; Editing by Richard Pullin)