Explainer: The Electoral College and the 2020 U.S. presidential race

By Jan Wolfe

(Reuters) – In the United States, the winner of a presidential election is determined not by a national vote but through a system called the Electoral College, which allots “electoral votes” to all 50 states and the District of Columbia based on their population.

Complicating things further, a web of laws and constitutional provisions kick in to resolve particularly close elections.

Here are some of the rules that could decide the Nov. 3 contest between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

How does the Electoral College work?

There are 538 electoral votes, meaning 270 are needed to win the election. In 2016, President Donald Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton but secured 304 electoral votes to her 227.

Technically, Americans cast votes for electors, not the candidates themselves. Electors are typically party loyalists who pledge to support the candidate who gets the most votes in their state. Each elector represents one vote in the Electoral College.

The Electoral College was a compromise between the nation’s founders, who fiercely debated whether the president should be picked by Congress or through a popular vote.

All but two states use a winner-take-all approach: The candidate that wins the most votes in that state gets all of its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska use a more complex district-based allocation system that could result in their combined nine electoral votes being split between Trump and Biden.

Can electors go rogue?

Yes.

In 2016, seven of the 538 electors cast ballots for someone other than their state’s popular vote winner, an unusually high number.

Thirty-two states and the District of Columbia have laws intended to control rogue electors, or “faithless electors.” Some provide a financial penalty for a rogue vote, while others call for the vote to be canceled and the elector replaced.

When do the electors’ votes have to be certified by?

Federal law requires that electors meet in their respective states and formally send their vote to Congress on “the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December.” This year that date is Dec. 14.

Under U.S. law, Congress will generally consider a state’s result to be “conclusive” if it is finalized six days before the electors meet. This date, known as the “safe harbor” deadline, falls on Dec. 8 this year.

Those votes are officially tallied by Congress three weeks later and the president is sworn in on Jan. 20.

What if officials in a particular state can’t agree on who won?

Typically, governors certify the results in their respective states and share the information with Congress. But it is possible for “dueling slates of electors,” in which the governor and legislature in a closely contested state could submit two different election results.

The risk of this happening is heightened in states where the legislature is controlled by a different party than the governor. Several battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have Democratic governors and Republican-controlled legislatures.

According to legal experts, it is unclear in this scenario whether Congress should accept the governor’s electoral slate or not count the state’s electoral votes at all.

What if a candidate doesn’t get 270 votes?

One flaw of the electoral college system is that it could produce a 269-269 tie. If that occurs, a newly elected House of Representatives would decide the fate of the presidency on Jan. 6, with each state’s votes determined by a delegation, as required by the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

Currently, Republicans control 26 state delegations, while Democrats control 22. Pennsylvania is tied between Democratic and Republican members. Michigan has seven Democrats, six Republicans and one independent.

The composition of the House will change on Nov. 3, when all 435 House seats are up for grabs.

Will the system ever change?

Critics say the Electoral College thwarts the will of the people. Calls for abolishing the system increased after George W. Bush won the 2000 election despite losing the popular vote, and again in 2016 when Trump pulled off a similar victory.

The Electoral College is mandated in the Constitution, so abolishing it would require a constitutional amendment. Such amendments require two-thirds approval from both the House and Senate and ratification by the states, or a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of state legislatures.

Republicans, who benefited from the Electoral College in the 2000 and 2016 elections, are unlikely to back such an amendment.

Individuals states do have some freedom to change how their electors are chosen, and experts have floated proposals for reforming the system without a constitutional amendment.

Under one proposal, states would form a compact and agree to award all their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the nationwide popular vote.

(Reporting by Jan Wolfe; Editing by Noeleen Walder and Aurora Ellis)

‘Two is enough,’ Egypt tells poor families as population booms

An Egyptian family prepares a cabbage meal for lunch in the province of Fayoum, southwest of Cairo, Egypt February 19, 2019. Picture taken February 19, 2019. REUTERS/Hayam Adel

By Lena Masri

SOHAG, Egypt (Reuters) – Nesma Ghanem is hoping for a fourth child even though her doctor says her body can’t handle a pregnancy at the moment. She has three daughters and would like them to have a brother.

“In the future he could support his father and the girls,” said Ghanem, 27, who lives in a village in Sohag, Eygypt, an area with one of the country’s highest fertility rates.

The family depends on her husband’s income from a local cafe. “If I have a son people, here in the village can say that he will carry on his father’s name,” she said.

As Egypt’s population heads towards 100 million, the government is trying to change the minds of people like Ghanem. “Two Is Enough” is the government’s first family-planning campaign aiming to challenge traditions of large families in rural Egypt. But Ghanem’s wish to have a son shows how hard that could be.

“The main challenge is that we’re trying to change a way of thinking,” said Randa Fares, coordinator of the campaign at the Social Solidarity Ministry. “To change a way of thinking is difficult.”

Egypt’s population is growing by 2.6 million a year, a high rate for a country where water and jobs are scarce and schools and hospitals overcrowded. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi says the two biggest threats to Egypt are terrorism and population growth.

An Egyptian family prepare traditional sweets at their house in the province of Fayoum, southwest of Cairo, Egypt February 19, 2019. Picture taken February 19, 2019. REUTERS/Hayam Adel

An Egyptian family prepare traditional sweets at their house in the province of Fayoum, southwest of Cairo, Egypt February 19, 2019. Picture taken February 19, 2019. REUTERS/Hayam Adel

“We are faced with scarcity in water resources … scarcity in jobs, job creation, and we need to really control this population growth so that people can feel the benefits of development,” Minister of Social Solidarity Ghada Wali told Reuters.

Decades ago, Egypt had a family-planning program, supported by the United States. The fertility rate fell from 5.6 children per woman in 1976 to 3.0 in 2008 while the use of contraceptives went up from 18.8 percent to 60.3 percent. Large amounts of contraceptives were made available and advertisements increased demand for birth control.

Support for family planning from the Egyptian government and large sums from donors helped make the program successful, said Duff Gillespie, who directed USAID’s population office from 1986 to 1993.

But Egypt was relying on donor support and when that assistance went away, family planning was neglected. By 2014 the fertility rate had gone up to 3.5. The United States is supporting family planning in Egypt again, providing more than $19 million for a five-year project ending in 2022 and $4 million for a smaller private sector project ending in 2020.

Those amounts are significantly lower than the $371 million the United States spent on family planning in Egypt between 1976 and 2008.

“Two Is Enough” is mainly financed by Egyptian money, with the Social Solidarity Ministry spending 75 million Egyptian pounds ($4.27 million) and the U.N. providing 10 million pounds, according to the ministry.

The two-year campaign targets more than 1.1 million poor families with up to three children. The Social Solidarity Ministry, with local NGOs, has trained volunteers to make home visits and encourage people to have fewer children.

Mothers are invited to seminars with preachers who say that Islam allows family planning, and doctors who answer questions. Billboards and TV ads promote smaller families. The government aims to reduce the current fertility rate of 3.5 to 2.4 by 2030.

At a session teaching volunteers how to speak to mothers and fathers about family planning in a village in Giza, Asmaa Mohammad, a 25-year-old volunteer, told Reuters she would rather have three children than two.

“Since I was a child I knew I wanted three children,” said Mohammad who is unmarried and doesn’t have children yet.

Deeply rooted traditions and lack of education explain why many Egyptians have big families. Al-Azhar, Egypt’s top Sunni Muslim authority, endorses family planning, but not all Egyptians agree.

Some view children as a future source of support. Others who only have girls keep having more until they get a boy who can carry on the family name.

During a visit from a campaign volunteer, Ghanem said her wish to have a boy was not the main reason she wasn’t using contraceptives. She stopped using an IUD after suffering from bleeding.

About one in three Egyptian women stop using contraceptives within a year, often due to misinformation about the side effects or lack of information about alternatives, according to the United Nations Population Fund.

Nearly 13 percent of married women of reproductive age in Egypt want to use contraceptives but are unable to, according to official data from 2014.

Now the government has renovated clinics, added staff and provided more free contraceptives. Under “Two is Enough” the goal is to have 70 new clinics up and running in March.

But when Reuters visited a clinic in Sohag last month, there were no contraceptives left. Nema Mahmoud, who had traveled from her village, was told to come back the next day.

Sohag, one of Egypt’s poorest governorates, also has one of the highest fertility rates at 4.3. The National Population Council said contraceptive use in Sohag is the lowest among six governorates surveyed.

For years Mahmoud, 33, didn’t use contraceptives consistently even though she wanted a small family. Her mother-in-law kept her from traveling to the city to get contraceptives when the local clinic was out, she said.

It was only after her mother-in-law died that she started using contraceptives properly. By then Mahmoud had three children and three miscarriages.

Since January, the government has limited cash assistance to poor families to two children instead of three in an attempt to push them to have fewer kids. Mahmoud will receive less cash every month. Her husband works only a few days a month, making 45 Egyptian pounds ($2.60) a day, she said.

Mahmoud and her neighbor Sanaa Mohammad, a 38-year-old mother of three, said the change should apply to new families, not women like them who already benefit from the program and have more than two children.

“It’s not fair to give someone something and then take it away,” said Mohammad.

The government sees the population boom as a threat to its economic reform plans. Every year, 800,000 young Egyptians enter the labor market, where unemployment is officially 10 percent.

In Egypt, population growth is around half the economic growth rate, but it should be no more than a third – otherwise it will be difficult to invest in social programs and improve living standards, said Magued Osman, chief executive of Baseera, the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research.

Analysts say Egypt should target people before they have children and sex education should be available in schools.

“Two Is Enough is good, but by itself it will not do the job,” said Abla Abdel Latif, executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies.

Wafaa Mohammad Amin, 36, a mother of four who works on “Two Is Enough”, got married at 17 and had her first child a year later. Two of her children were malnourished because she didn’t know how to breastfeed properly. She had to postpone her education and couldn’t work for years.

“There are many things I know now that I wish I had known back then,” she said. “I don’t want others to go through what I went through.”

(Reporting and writing by Lena Masri; Editing by Giles Elgood)

Spain’s population grows for second straight year due to immigration

FILE PHOTO: The border fence separating Spain's northern enclave Ceuta and Morocco is seen from Ceuta, Spain, June 22, 2018. REUTERS/Juan Medina/File Photo

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s population rose for the second straight year in 2017, after having fallen between 2012 and 2015 in the midst of an economic downturn, as an increase in foreigners offset a fall in the number of Spaniards, official data showed on Monday.

The figures come as Europe grapples with a rising influx of migrants, mostly from north Africa and war-torn countries such as Syria, after Mediterranean arrivals spiked in 2015. Sixteen EU leaders met for emergency talks in Brussels on Sunday to find a “European solution” to the issue.

The population of Spain increased to 46.66 million to Jan. 1, 2018, a rise of 132,263 people than a year earlier, the highest since Jan. 1 2013, the National Statistics Institute reported.

Spain saw a net increase of migrants arriving in the country of 146,604 people, after the arrival of almost half a million people last year, the largest migrant influx in 10 years, the data showed.

The total number of deaths in Spain in 2017 outpaced the number of births at the fastest pace since records began in 1941, data showed last week as the number of births dropped 4.5 percent while the number of deaths rose 3.2 percent.

The largest increases in migrants came from Venezuela, Colombia, Italy and Morocco, while the largest decreases were from Romania, Britain and Ecuador, INE said.

(Reporting by Paul Day; Editing by Jesús Aguado, William Maclean)

China considers scrapping birth limits by 2019: Bloomberg

FILE PHOTO: A nurse takes care of newborn babies at a hospital in Hefei, Anhui province April 2011. REUTERS/Stringer

HONG KONG (Reuters) – China is considering ending the limits it sets on the number of children a family can have, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s population is aging rapidly, with the number of births falling by 3.5 percent to 17.23 million last year despite the country’s decision in late 2015 to relax the controversial “one-child” policy and allow couples to have a second child.

The State Council, or cabinet, has commissioned research on ending the country’s birth limits on a nationwide basis, the Bloomberg report said.

A decision could be made in the last quarter of this year or in 2019, the report said.

China implemented its one-child policy in the 1970s to limit population growth, but authorities are concerned that a dwindling workforce will not be able to support an increasingly aging population.

The one-child policy also contributed to a sharp gender imbalance, with 32.66 million more males than females at the end of 2017.

(Reporting by Meg Shen; Editing by Tony Munroe)

Australia struggles to improve lives of indigenous population

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull poses at an event featuring indigenous Australians on the eve of the 'Close the Gap' report at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, February 13, 2017. AAP/Mick Tsikas/via REUTERS

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia is failing to meet almost every target for improving the lives of its indigenous population, including reducing the infant mortality rate, getting children in school and adults in jobs, according to a government report released on Tuesday.

Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders make up just three percent of Australia’s population of 23 million people but have disproportionately high rates of suicide and incarceration, tracking near the bottom in almost every economic and social indicator.

The ninth annual Closing the Gap report marks 50 years since Australia’s constitution was changed to count Aborigines as part of the population and allow laws specifically targeted at indigenous communities in a bid to improve welfare and living standards.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said there were more indigenous Australians in school, employment, business, and in better health.

“We have come a long way over the last 50 years … but we have not come far enough,” Turnbull said in a breakfast address to aboriginal community leaders. “There are still significant challenges that remain.”

The report said the government’s target to close a 10-year gap in life expectancy between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians by 2031 was behind schedule as the rate of deaths from cancer increased.

A target to halve the child mortality rate by 2018 also missed its target in 2016, however improvements to antenatal care and smoking rates during pregnancy would help move closer to the 2018 goal, the report said.

Australia’s historic apology almost a decade ago for its mistreatment of Aborigines was supposed to herald a new era of race relations, but with progress in addressing inequality stalling, tensions between the two communities are high.

Late last month, thousands of Australians marched in protests across the country, demanding the date of the national holiday be changed.

For many Aborigines, who trace their lineage on the island continent back 50,000 years, Australia Day Jan. 26 is “Invasion Day”, the anniversary of the beginning of British colonization of their lands and their brutal subjugation. [nL4N1FG22O]

The Closing the Gap report showed that education levels are falling behind targets, a key driver for the huge disparity in national employment statistics.

The report pegged unemployment for indigenous people of working age at more than 20 percent, 3.6 times the non-indigenous unemployment rate. Indigenous unemployment rates in the remote areas of the country are in excess of 40 percent.

(Editing by Jane Wardell and Michael Perry)

German population hits record high of 82.8 million due to migrants

Migrants walk to Germany's customs

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s population grew by some 600,000 last year to reach a record high of 82.8 million people due to the number of migrants who have arrived in the country, the Federal Statistics office said on Friday.

In a preliminary estimate for 2016, the statistics office said the population had eclipsed the previous record high of 82.5 million recorded at the end of 2002, even though the number of deaths in 2016 exceeded the number of births by between 150,000 and 190,000.

Deaths have exceed births in Germany since 1972, with a total of more than 5 million fewer births than deaths.

However, countering that trend, more than a million people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East, Africa and beyond flocked to Germany in 2015 and 2016, drawn by its strong economy, relatively liberal asylum laws and generous system of benefits.

Since the height of the euro zone debt crisis, Germany is also attracting many migrants from other European countries such as Greece and Spain.

The figures used to calculate net migration were based on numbers signing up at registration offices. Asylum seekers are initially housed in reception centers and generally only registered later.

Steady economic growth since 2010 and generous pro-family policies by successive governments in recent years have helped lift the birth rate but it is still below the death rate.

German government support for refugees has climbed in recent years. For 2016 and 2017 the government set aside 28.7 billion euros ($30.64 billion) in funding to accommodate and integrate the more than one million asylum seekers who entered the country, the ministry said.

(Reporting by Erik Kirschbaum)

Scientists use climate, population change to predict disease

A mosquito is seen under a microscope at the Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District in Santa Fe Springs

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) – British scientists say they have developed a model that can predict outbreaks of zoonotic diseases – those such as Ebola and Zika that jump from animals to humans – based on changes in climate.

Describing their model as “a major improvement in our understanding of the spread of diseases from animals to people”, the researchers said it could help governments prepare for and respond to disease outbreaks, and to factor in their risk when making policies that might affect the environment.

“Our model can help decision-makers assess the likely impact (on zoonotic disease) of any interventions or change in national or international government policies, such as the conversion of grasslands to agricultural lands,” said Kate Jones, a professor who co-led the study at University College London’s genetics, evolution and environment department.

The model also has the potential to look at the impact of global change on many diseases at once, she said.

Around 60 to 75 percent of emerging infectious diseases are so-called “zoonotic events”, where animal diseases jump into people. Bats in particular are known to carry many zoonotic viruses.

The Ebola and Zika viruses, now well known, both originated in wild animals, as did many others including Rift Valley fever and Lassa fever that affect thousands already and are predicted to spread with changing environmental factors.

Jones’ team used the locations of 408 known Lassa fever outbreaks in West Africa between 1967 and 2012 and the changes in land use and crop yields, temperature and rainfall, behavior and access to health care.

They also identified the sub-species of the multimammate rat that transmits Lassa virus to humans, to map its location against ecological factors.

The model was then developed using this information along with forecasts of climate change, future population density and land-use change.

“Our approach successfully predicts outbreaks of individual diseases by pairing the changes in the host’s distribution as the environment changes with the mechanics of how that disease spreads from animals to people,” said David Redding, who co-led the study.

“It allows us to calculate how often people are likely to come into contact with disease-carrying animals and their risk of the virus spilling over.”

The team tested their new model using Lassa fever, a disease that is endemic across West Africa and is caused by a virus passing to people from rats. Like Ebola, Lassa causes hemorrhagic fever and can be fatal.

The study, published in the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, tested the model with Lassa and found the number of infected people will double to 406,000 by 2070 from some 195,000 due to climate change and a growing human population.

(Reporting by Kate Kelland; editing by Andrew Roche)